Harrisburg Plan

Plant City, FL 33565

$330,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 243 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,797/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$825
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-1,211/mo
• Annual: $-14,535/yr
• Cap rate: 3.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.49%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $331k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $280k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cork Elementary School (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 690 students, 64% FRL); Tomlin Middle School (math 45% / reading 39%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,499 students, 64% FRL); Strawberry Crest High School (math 49% / reading 55%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,558 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 501 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 4.3% in Plant City — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,797/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.