Harrisburg Plan · Plant City, FL 33565

$330,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily · 243 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Family room
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $330,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $452,933.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $331k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-879 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cork Elementary School (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 690 students, 64% FRL); Tomlin Middle School (math 45% / reading 39%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,499 students, 64% FRL); Strawberry Crest High School (math 49% / reading 55%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,558 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,850/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,994 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.31%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $452,933
• List price: $330,990
• Delta: -26.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3401 N Forbes Rd	0.89mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,760 (-3%)	2mo	$505,000	$287	51
2623 N Bethlehem Rd	2.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,707 (-6%)	2mo	$565,000	$331	48
6311 Bob Head Rd	1.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,676 (-8%)	2mo	$362,000	$216	45
2425 Hawk Griffin Rd	1.76mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (-16%)	0mo	$565,000	$372	35
4112 Cooper Rd	1.89mi	4/3.0	2,231 (+23%)	4mo	$491,000	$220	33
6606 Bob Head Rd	1.89mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-24%)	4mo	$325,000	$234	31
6416 Thonotosassa Rd	1.61mi	4/3.0	2,127 (+17%)	7mo	$1,455,000	$684	30
6009 Bob Head Rd	1.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-11%)	13mo	$305,000	$189	30
3533 Sam Allen Oaks Cir	1.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,262 (+24%)	8mo	$490,000	$217	29
3905 Cooper Rd	1.95mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-8%)	36mo	$430,000	$257	27
4001 Keene Rd	1.87mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,504 (-17%)	17mo	$300,000	$199	17
4902 Thonotosassa Rd	1.52mi	4/3.0	2,190 (+20%)	27mo	$600,000	$274	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-129,315
• Equity at exit: $67,534

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-184,491
• Equity at exit: $39,161

Cash invested: $126,821 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,990 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 127 d
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +35.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33565

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,375
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$566 /mo · $6,794/yr
• Insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-879

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,962

Max offer price $325,789

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-566	-5% $-722	+0% $-879	+5% $-1,035	+10% $-1,192
Rent	-10% $-1,104	-5% $-991	+0% $-879	+5% $-766	+10% $-654
Rate	-1.0pp $-651	-0.5pp $-763	base $-879	+0.5pp $-996	+1.0pp $-1,115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,233
• Closing costs: $13,588
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4902 Thonotosassa Rd Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2199	$3,500	$1.59	73d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,990 Active 243 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,990 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,990 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,990 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,990 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $330,990 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $330,990 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $330,990 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $330,990 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,990 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,990 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-04-02
    price $330,990 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

13. 2026-03-02
    price $325,990 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

14. 2026-02-23
    price $322,990 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

15. 2026-02-14
    price $314,990 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

16. 2025-10-15
    listed $375,990 Active 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,371
• − Property taxes: −$6,794
• − Insurance: −$2,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,736
• − Management: −$2,736
• − Depreciation: −$13,176
• Taxable loss: −$18,879
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,531
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,085–$27,255 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a good curb appeal and minimal maintenance required. It is ready for a cosmetic upgrade to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace any damaged windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cork Elementary School F FL #1,454/2,144 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 Middle Tomlin Middle School D- FL #340/571 Nat'l #5,398/14,009 High Strawberry Crest High School D+ FL #160/667 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,108
• Household income: $73,414
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.17%
• Current HPI: 347.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $330,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $325,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $322,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $314,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $375,990 Zillow