3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
925 sqft ·
Built 1956
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 39 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,248/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$425
Tax + insurance
−$135
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$262
Net cashflow
$426/mo
Annual
$5,112/yr
Cap rate
12.60%
Cash-on-cash
22.54%
DSCR
2.00
1% rule
1.54%
Cash to close
$22,680
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $81k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $79k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $560 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $685 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#769 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Zoned schools: Salt Fork Junior High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #256 of 665 statewide, top 41%, 186 students, 0% FRL); Salt Fork High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #528 of 693 statewide, top 82%, 247 students, 0% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Vermilion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Vermilion County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BBHQ41399TDKR4
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29