184 Belvue Ave

Lyons, GA 30436

$149,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 182 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $-187/mo
• Annual: $-2,250/yr
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.39%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (39.6% below list).
• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $90k (39.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#330 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Toombs County (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lyons Primary School (557 students, 87% FRL); Toombs County Middle School (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #271 of 470 statewide, top 60%, 670 students, 87% FRL); Toombs County High School (math 28% / reading 17%, grade F, #210 of 424 statewide, top 50%, 853 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 33 units permitted in Toombs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Toombs County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.