184 Belvue Ave · Lyons, GA 30436

$149,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1979 0.42 ac lot $138/sqft · 8% below area Est $162k · 8% under ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 184 Belvue Avenue in Lyons, Ga! This delightful home features three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms. The open dining room seamlessly flows into the living room, creating a welcoming atmosphere for entertaining and relaxation. With new LVP flooring, a brand-new roof, and fresh interior paint, this home is move-in ready. Situated on an end lot with a nice-sized yard, there is ample space for outdoor activities and family gatherings. Additionally, the carport provides convenient shelter for your vehicle.

Key facts

• Brand-new roof
• End lot
• Open dining room

Tags

• OPEN DINING ROOM
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• END LOT
• NICE-SIZED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (39.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $90k (39.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#330 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Toombs County (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lyons Primary School (557 students, 87% FRL); Toombs County Middle School (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #271 of 470 statewide, top 60%, 670 students, 87% FRL); Toombs County High School (math 28% / reading 17%, grade F, #210 of 424 statewide, top 50%, 853 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 33 units permitted in Toombs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Toombs County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,000 (39.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.39%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,580
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -7.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $69,141
• Equity at exit: $134,231

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $212,867
• Equity at exit: $289,474

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30436

• Home prices YoY: 9.5%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $660/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $115,880

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-103	-5% $-145	+0% $-187	+5% $-230	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-259	-5% $-223	+0% $-187	+5% $-152	+10% $-116
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-150	base $-187	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
238 W Wesley Ave #1 Lyons, GA	2.0	1.0	910	$900	$0.99	45d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-01-16
    price $149,000 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Welcome to 184 Belvue Avenue in Lyons, Ga! This delightful home features three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms. The open dining room seamlessly flows into the living room, creating a welcoming atmosphere for entertaining and relaxation. With new LVP flooring, a brand-new roof, and fresh interior paint, this home is move-in ready. Situated on an end lot with a nice-sized yard, there is ample space for outdoor activities and family gatherings. Additionally, the carport provides convenient shelter for your vehicle.

11. 2025-12-09
    listed $164,000 New 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Welcome to 184 Belvue Avenue in Lyons, Ga! This delightful home features three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms. The open dining room seamlessly flows into the living room, creating a welcoming atmosphere for entertaining and relaxation. With new LVP flooring, a brand-new roof, and fresh interior paint, this home is move-in ready. Situated on an end lot with a nice-sized yard, there is ample space for outdoor activities and family gatherings. Additionally, the carport provides convenient shelter for your vehicle.

12. 2025-07-17
    soldstatus $195,000 Sold 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIALS!!! 4 rental properties total **DO NOT DISTURB TENANTS **Owner will be selling as a rental package *Call listing agent for more details & information Parcel #L07 038 Parcel #L08 054A Parcel #L03 024 Parcel #LO7 009

13. 2025-07-16
    soldstatus $195,000
14. 2025-06-12
    status Under Contract 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIALS!!! 4 rental properties total **DO NOT DISTURB TENANTS **Owner will be selling as a rental package *Call listing agent for more details & information Parcel #L07 038 Parcel #L08 054A Parcel #L03 024 Parcel #LO7 009

15. 2025-05-08
    listed $296,000 New 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIALS!!! 4 rental properties total **DO NOT DISTURB TENANTS **Owner will be selling as a rental package *Call listing agent for more details & information Parcel #L07 038 Parcel #L08 054A Parcel #L03 024 Parcel #LO7 009

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,371 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$710/yr (+$59/mo · 107.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$660
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$5,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,203
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toombs County
• NCES district ID: 1305040
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,288
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6922
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lyons

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #17443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyons, GA
• Population (ZIP): 11,547

Population outlook (Toombs County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,784 people
• By 2030: 26,312 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 25,219 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,733 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 19,107 · -28.7%
• By 2100: 12,922 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Toombs

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.7) · D 24.5% · R 75.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.1pp · 2024: -50.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.7 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+46.9 2012: R+40.5 2008: R+38.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.28%
• Current HPI: 257.7921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-49.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $149,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $164,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-17 Sold (MLS) $195,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-12 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listed $296,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $660 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.