9836 Southwinds Dr

Fort Mill, SC 29707

$299,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,748 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,328/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-276/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-276/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (22.1% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $233k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#23 in SC, #3,459 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lancaster 01 (rural): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #26 of 80 in SC (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harrisburg Elementary (math 69% / reading 66%, grade B+, #44 of 597 statewide, top 7%, 1,089 students, 20% FRL); Indian Land High (math 52% / reading 91%, grade B+, #53 of 196 statewide, top 27%, 1,678 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 47% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lancaster 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 976 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.3% in Fort Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.