9836 Southwinds Dr · Fort Mill, SC 29707

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,748 sqft · Manufactured public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1996 1.08 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on over an acre, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Surrounded by a wooded setting, the property provides a peaceful retreat while still being just minutes from shopping, dining, and Ballantyne! Inside, you’ll find a functional layout featuring a dedicated office space and a heated and cooled sun porch—ideal for year-round enjoyment. The home offers comfortable living with flexible spaces to fit your needs. Outside, the expansive lot includes multiple outbuildings, providing excellent storage, workshop potential, or hobby space, along with a convenient carport. With its private setting and prime location, this prope

Key facts

• Wooded setting
• Over an acre
• Convenient carport

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE
• WOODED SETTING
• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• HEATED AND COOLED SUN PORCH
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• CONVENIENT CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Has carport
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Manufactured single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Aluminum exterior; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Concrete road frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Electric oven
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-276/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.3% in Fort Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#23 in SC, #3,459 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lancaster 01 (rural): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #26 of 80 in SC (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harrisburg Elementary (math 69% / reading 66%, grade B+, #44 of 597 statewide, top 7%, 1,089 students, 20% FRL); Indian Land High (math 52% / reading 91%, grade B+, #53 of 196 statewide, top 27%, 1,678 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 47% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lancaster 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 976 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,839 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-51,173
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-51,549
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29707

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,328 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,038/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,358

Max offer price $294,934

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1241 Columbia Cir Fort Mill, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1456	$2,937	$2.02	2d	26	0.46mi
7038 Whittingham Dr Fort Mill, SC	4.0	2.5	1752	$2,500	$1.43	12d	1	0.85mi
3506 Buster Ln Fort Mill, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$2,307	$2.19	2d	25	1.05mi
2278 Capital Club Way Fort Mill, SC	3.0	2.5	1204	$2,386	$1.98	2d	25	1.08mi
2472 Redmayne Ln Unit 1 Indian Land, SC	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,995	$1.33	24d	1	1.12mi
2472 Redmayne Ln Fort Mill, SC	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	24d	1	1.12mi
1004 Bailes Ridge Ave Fort Mill, SC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,011	$2.03	2d	31	1.17mi
247 Makayla Ct Fort Mill, SC	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,740	$1.20	3d	1	1.43mi
4104 Flats Main St Indian Land, SC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$2,045	$2.24	3d	13	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $299,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $305,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $305,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $305,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $305,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-03-19
    listed $305,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,038 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,038 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,038
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,235
• − Management: −$2,235
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $1,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster 01
• NCES district ID: 4502580
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,165
• Composite: 37.23/100
• National rank: #4462
• State rank: #26 of 80 in SC

Livability — Fort Mill

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #3459

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 91,213 people
• City population: 128,009
• Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
• Population (ZIP): 37,629
• Household income: $118,295
• Rent vs Own: 9.6% rent · 90.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,572 people
• By 2030: 114,865 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 132,268 · +25.3%
• By 2050: 148,252 · +40.4%
• By 2075: 182,540 · +72.9%
• By 2100: 202,237 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.8) · D 37.0% · R 61.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -24.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.8 2020: R+22.8 2016: R+25.5 2012: R+18.0 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.64%
• Current HPI: 268.0255
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $305,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,038 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.