156 Kirklen Ln

South Henderson, NC 27537

$85,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Under Contract

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,466/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $591/mo
• Annual: $7,095/yr
• Cap rate: 14.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.81%
• DSCR: 2.33
• 1% rule: 1.72%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#710 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Vance County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #166 of 178 in NC (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Vance County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Vance County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $85k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 47% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.