156 Kirklen Ln · South Henderson, NC 27537

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1999

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD CASE #381-576988. FHA INSURED FINANCING NOT AVAILABLE. HOME IS SOLD 'AS-IS'. HUD WILL NOT MAKE ANY REPAIRS. ELECTRONIC BIDDING VIA PHONE OR INTERNET ONLY. CONTACT LISTING OFFICE FOR WEB ADDRESS WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. NO REPAIRS OR OCCUPANCY TIL AFTER CLOSING.

Key facts

• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#710 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Vance County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #166 of 178 in NC (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Vance County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vance County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $85k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 47% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.81%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $23,894
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $69,337
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27537

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,029/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $718

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $85,000
2. 2002-10-10
   soldstatus $31,200 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   HUD CASE #381-576988. FHA INSURED FINANCING NOT AVAILABLE. HOME IS SOLD 'AS-IS'. HUD WILL NOT MAKE ANY REPAIRS. ELECTRONIC BIDDING VIA PHONE OR INTERNET ONLY. CONTACT LISTING OFFICE FOR WEB ADDRESS WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. NO REPAIRS OR OCCUPANCY TIL AFTER CLOSING.

3. 2002-10-10
   soldstatus $31,200 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   HUD CASE #381-576988. FHA INSURED FINANCING NOT AVAILABLE. HOME IS SOLD 'AS-IS'. HUD WILL NOT MAKE ANY REPAIRS. ELECTRONIC BIDDING VIA PHONE OR INTERNET ONLY. CONTACT LISTING OFFICE FOR WEB ADDRESS WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. NO REPAIRS OR OCCUPANCY TIL AFTER CLOSING.

4. 2002-07-15
   historical 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   HUD CASE #381-576988. FHA INSURED FINANCING NOT AVAILABLE. HOME IS SOLD 'AS-IS'. HUD WILL NOT MAKE ANY REPAIRS. ELECTRONIC BIDDING VIA PHONE OR INTERNET ONLY. CONTACT LISTING OFFICE FOR WEB ADDRESS WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. NO REPAIRS OR OCCUPANCY TIL AFTER CLOSING.

5. 2002-07-05
   listed $31,000 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   HUD CASE #381-576988. FHA INSURED FINANCING NOT AVAILABLE. HOME IS SOLD 'AS-IS'. HUD WILL NOT MAKE ANY REPAIRS. ELECTRONIC BIDDING VIA PHONE OR INTERNET ONLY. CONTACT LISTING OFFICE FOR WEB ADDRESS WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. NO REPAIRS OR OCCUPANCY TIL AFTER CLOSING.

6. 2002-07-05
   listed $31,000 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   HUD CASE #381-576988. FHA INSURED FINANCING NOT AVAILABLE. HOME IS SOLD 'AS-IS'. HUD WILL NOT MAKE ANY REPAIRS. ELECTRONIC BIDDING VIA PHONE OR INTERNET ONLY. CONTACT LISTING OFFICE FOR WEB ADDRESS WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. NO REPAIRS OR OCCUPANCY TIL AFTER CLOSING.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,029 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,029 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 47% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,029
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,090
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,462
• After-tax cash flow: $5,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vance County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704650
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,323
• Composite: 19.29/100
• National rank: #8801
• State rank: #166 of 178 in NC

Livability — South Henderson

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #710
• US rank: #25701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,795

Population outlook (Vance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,985 people
• By 2030: 40,286 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 36,372 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 32,466 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 24,229 · -42.3%
• By 2100: 17,784 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Vance

• 2024 margin: D (+13.3) · D 56.3% · R 42.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: 13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.3 2020: D+19.2 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+28.3 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.06%
• Current HPI: 270.3424
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+174.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $85,000 FSBO.com
• 2002-10-10 Sold (MLS) $31,200 AMLSNC
• 2002-10-10 Sold (MLS) $31,200 TMLS
• 2002-07-15 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2002-07-05 Listed $31,000 AMLSNC
• 2002-07-05 Listed $31,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,029 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.