16 Cold Spring Rd

Shrub Oak, NY 10579

$649,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Built 1927 · SingleFamily · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,662/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax + insurance: −$1,086
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$979
• Net cashflow: $-807/mo
• Annual: $-9,678/yr
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.33%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $181,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-807 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $507k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $466k (28.2% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $466k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#342 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Putnam Valley Central School District (suburban): math 73% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #91 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $649k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.