16 Cold Spring Rd · Shrub Oak, NY 10579

$649,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1927 0.36 ac lot $430/sqft · at area comps Est $635k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located on a quiet dead end street in Putnam Valley, this completely rebuilt home offers deeded lake and dock rights to the beautiful Lake Oscawana. A short stroll down the road brings you to the dock area where your designated slip awaits. Spend your summers simply enjoying this motorboat friendly lake. The home was taken down to the framing and thoughtfully reconstructed throughout. Nearly everything is new including insulation, electrical, plumbing, flooring, walls, ceilings, siding, roof, windows, doors and so much more, creating the feel of new construction with timeless style. A welcoming screened in front porch with recessed lighting sets the tone for relaxed mornings and peaceful evenings. Inside, hardwood floors run throughout the bright open layout. The newly designed kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living space and is complemented by beautifully updated baths. A spacious laundry room with pantry storage and a convenient first floor powder room add everyday functionality. Step out through the double doors leading to a newly built rear deck, perfect for outdoor dining, entertaining, or unwinding after a day on the water. Upstairs features two generously sized bedrooms, two hallway closets for added storage, a full hall bath, and a primary suite complete with a private bath featuring a double vanity and two separate closets. The unfinished basement provides additional storage and the houses utilities. Offering modern updates, peaceful surroundings, and true lake living, this home is ready to be enjoyed year round on one of Putnam Valley’s most desirable lakes. Conveniently located just 4 miles from the Taconic State Parkway and approximately 9.5 miles to the Garrison Metro North train station, this property provides easy access for commuters while still delivering a private retreat setting. Experience it for yourself.

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1927

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-807 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $507k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $466k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $466k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#342 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Putnam Valley Central School District (suburban): math 73% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #91 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $649k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $466,250 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.33%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $634,713
• List price: $649,000
• Delta: 2.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Cross Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,550 (+3%)	5mo	$482,000	$311	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $302,168
• Equity at exit: $584,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $930,376
• Equity at exit: $1,260,864

Cash invested: $181,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10579

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax from tax record: −$816 /mo · $9,793/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$979
• Net cashflow: $-807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,683

Max offer price $506,525

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,250
• Closing costs: $19,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $649,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $649,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $649,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $649,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $649,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $649,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $649,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    price $649,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $675,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $675,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $675,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $675,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    price $675,000 1870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1870 chars)

    Located on a quiet dead end street in Putnam Valley, this completely rebuilt home offers deeded lake and dock rights to the beautiful Lake Oscawana. A short stroll down the road brings you to the dock area where your designated slip awaits. Spend your summers simply enjoying this motorboat friendly lake. The home was taken down to the framing and thoughtfully reconstructed throughout. Nearly everything is new including insulation, electrical, plumbing, flooring, walls, ceilings, siding, roof, windows, doors and so much more, creating the feel of new construction with timeless style. A welcoming screened in front porch with recessed lighting sets the tone for relaxed mornings and peaceful evenings. Inside, hardwood floors run throughout the bright open layout. The newly designed kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living space and is complemented by beautifully updated baths. A spacious laundry room with pantry storage and a convenient first floor powder room add everyday functionality. Step out through the double doors leading to a newly built rear deck, perfect for outdoor dining, entertaining, or unwinding after a day on the water. Upstairs features two generously sized bedrooms, two hallway closets for added storage, a full hall bath, and a primary suite complete with a private bath featuring a double vanity and two separate closets. The unfinished basement provides additional storage and the houses utilities. Offering modern updates, peaceful surroundings, and true lake living, this home is ready to be enjoyed year round on one of Putnam Valley’s most desirable lakes. Conveniently located just 4 miles from the Taconic State Parkway and approximately 9.5 miles to the Garrison Metro North train station, this property provides easy access for commuters while still delivering a private retreat setting. Experience it for yourself.

17. 2026-02-28
    listed $699,000 Active 1870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1870 chars)

    Located on a quiet dead end street in Putnam Valley, this completely rebuilt home offers deeded lake and dock rights to the beautiful Lake Oscawana. A short stroll down the road brings you to the dock area where your designated slip awaits. Spend your summers simply enjoying this motorboat friendly lake. The home was taken down to the framing and thoughtfully reconstructed throughout. Nearly everything is new including insulation, electrical, plumbing, flooring, walls, ceilings, siding, roof, windows, doors and so much more, creating the feel of new construction with timeless style. A welcoming screened in front porch with recessed lighting sets the tone for relaxed mornings and peaceful evenings. Inside, hardwood floors run throughout the bright open layout. The newly designed kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living space and is complemented by beautifully updated baths. A spacious laundry room with pantry storage and a convenient first floor powder room add everyday functionality. Step out through the double doors leading to a newly built rear deck, perfect for outdoor dining, entertaining, or unwinding after a day on the water. Upstairs features two generously sized bedrooms, two hallway closets for added storage, a full hall bath, and a primary suite complete with a private bath featuring a double vanity and two separate closets. The unfinished basement provides additional storage and the houses utilities. Offering modern updates, peaceful surroundings, and true lake living, this home is ready to be enjoyed year round on one of Putnam Valley’s most desirable lakes. Conveniently located just 4 miles from the Taconic State Parkway and approximately 9.5 miles to the Garrison Metro North train station, this property provides easy access for commuters while still delivering a private retreat setting. Experience it for yourself.

18. 2026-02-22
    historical $699,000 1870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1870 chars)

    Located on a quiet dead end street in Putnam Valley, this completely rebuilt home offers deeded lake and dock rights to the beautiful Lake Oscawana. A short stroll down the road brings you to the dock area where your designated slip awaits. Spend your summers simply enjoying this motorboat friendly lake. The home was taken down to the framing and thoughtfully reconstructed throughout. Nearly everything is new including insulation, electrical, plumbing, flooring, walls, ceilings, siding, roof, windows, doors and so much more, creating the feel of new construction with timeless style. A welcoming screened in front porch with recessed lighting sets the tone for relaxed mornings and peaceful evenings. Inside, hardwood floors run throughout the bright open layout. The newly designed kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living space and is complemented by beautifully updated baths. A spacious laundry room with pantry storage and a convenient first floor powder room add everyday functionality. Step out through the double doors leading to a newly built rear deck, perfect for outdoor dining, entertaining, or unwinding after a day on the water. Upstairs features two generously sized bedrooms, two hallway closets for added storage, a full hall bath, and a primary suite complete with a private bath featuring a double vanity and two separate closets. The unfinished basement provides additional storage and the houses utilities. Offering modern updates, peaceful surroundings, and true lake living, this home is ready to be enjoyed year round on one of Putnam Valley’s most desirable lakes. Conveniently located just 4 miles from the Taconic State Parkway and approximately 9.5 miles to the Garrison Metro North train station, this property provides easy access for commuters while still delivering a private retreat setting. Experience it for yourself.

19. 2022-12-13
    soldstatus $240,000
20. 2022-12-06
    soldstatus $240,000 Closed 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Contractor/Investor special! Perfect opportunity! Restore this 4 Bed, 2 Bath Colonial to it's original glory! Property has deeded lake and dock rights less than a quarter of a mile down the road. Simply continue down the road to the docks and the slip is the one with the Flag at the end of the dock. Enjoy a multitude of motorized water sports on the breathtaking Lake Oscawana! Sold 'as is'. New upgrades include: New Oil Burner, 2 New Above Ground Oil Tank and Holding Tank. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

21. 2022-10-12
    status Pending 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Contractor/Investor special! Perfect opportunity! Restore this 4 Bed, 2 Bath Colonial to it's original glory! Property has deeded lake and dock rights less than a quarter of a mile down the road. Simply continue down the road to the docks and the slip is the one with the Flag at the end of the dock. Enjoy a multitude of motorized water sports on the breathtaking Lake Oscawana! Sold 'as is'. New upgrades include: New Oil Burner, 2 New Above Ground Oil Tank and Holding Tank. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

22. 2022-09-10
    price $268,000 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Contractor/Investor special! Perfect opportunity! Restore this 4 Bed, 2 Bath Colonial to it's original glory! Property has deeded lake and dock rights less than a quarter of a mile down the road. Simply continue down the road to the docks and the slip is the one with the Flag at the end of the dock. Enjoy a multitude of motorized water sports on the breathtaking Lake Oscawana! Sold 'as is'. New upgrades include: New Oil Burner, 2 New Above Ground Oil Tank and Holding Tank. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

23. 2022-08-15
    price $290,000 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Contractor/Investor special! Perfect opportunity! Restore this 4 Bed, 2 Bath Colonial to it's original glory! Property has deeded lake and dock rights less than a quarter of a mile down the road. Simply continue down the road to the docks and the slip is the one with the Flag at the end of the dock. Enjoy a multitude of motorized water sports on the breathtaking Lake Oscawana! Sold 'as is'. New upgrades include: New Oil Burner, 2 New Above Ground Oil Tank and Holding Tank. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

24. 2022-06-24
    listed $300,000 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Contractor/Investor special! Perfect opportunity! Restore this 4 Bed, 2 Bath Colonial to it's original glory! Property has deeded lake and dock rights less than a quarter of a mile down the road. Simply continue down the road to the docks and the slip is the one with the Flag at the end of the dock. Enjoy a multitude of motorized water sports on the breathtaking Lake Oscawana! Sold 'as is'. New upgrades include: New Oil Burner, 2 New Above Ground Oil Tank and Holding Tank. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,793 · $816/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,380 · $865/mo
• Expected delta: +$588/yr (+$49/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,354
• − Property taxes: −$9,793
• − Insurance: −$3,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,476
• − Management: −$4,476
• − Depreciation: −$18,880
• Taxable loss: −$21,274
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,106
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624000
• Math proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $94,086
• Composite: 65.26/100
• National rank: #491
• State rank: #91 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shrub Oak

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #5781

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,081
• Population (ZIP): 8,825

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.42%
• Current HPI: 269.3211
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+125.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $675,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Listed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Coming Soon $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-06 Sold (MLS) $240,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-10 Price Changed $268,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-15 Price Changed $290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-24 Listed $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,793 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.