16996 E 524 Rd

Stockton, MO 65785

$415,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 176 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,226/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-1,455/mo
• Annual: $-17,457/yr
• Cap rate: 2.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.02%
• DSCR: 0.33
• 1% rule: 0.30%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (61.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (70.4% below list).
• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (70.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#456 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Stockton R-I (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #77 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 3.5% in Stockton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.