16996 E 524 Rd · Stockton, MO 65785

$415,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1977 40 ac lot $314/sqft · 68% above area Est $415k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on 40 wooded acres just north of Stockton, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath cabin offers privacy, recreation, and income potential in a highly desirable Stockton Lake area. A spring-fed, stocked one-acre pond sits near the home, with mature timber and managed habitat surrounding the improvements. The cabin has been updated with respect for its original character, with new flooring, fresh paint, and an efficient, welcoming kitchen featuring butcher block counters and warm wood accents. Selling fully furnished, the cabin is truly move-in ready--whether you plan to use it for weekend stays or quickly prepare it for guests. The main living area offers an open-concept layout with a gas stove, A-frame ceiling, and glass doors overlooking the timber, plus a main-floor bedroom and full bath for practical everyday use or guest convenience. The loft level overlooks the great room and provides flexible space for a second living area, office, or bunkroom. The walkout basement adds meaningful versatility with its own entrance, kitchen, living area, bedroom, and office or nonconforming bedroom--well suited for multi-generational living, guest quarters, or a separate short-term rental suite in a market that already supports strong cabin-style vacation rentals. Outdoor living spaces include an enclosed lower porch, covered back porch, and open front deck, along with a shed and greenhouse for storage and gardening. The land is a core asset: mature timber, a trail system, and a well-planned food plot mix of clover, turnips, cowpeas, and winter wheat support healthy habitat consistent with QDMA/NDA Deer Steward principles and attract whitetail deer, turkey, and other wildlife. For a buyer seeking a full-time residence with acreage, a second home to enjoy on weekends, or an income-producing retreat near Stockton Lake, this property offers a rare combination of setting, functionality, and long-term potential.

Key facts

• Walkout basement
• Spring-fed pond
• Updated cabin

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• SPRING-FED POND
• UPDATED CABIN
• A-FRAME CEILING
• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• ENCLOSED LOWER PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (61.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (70.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (70.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 3.5% in Stockton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#456 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Stockton R-I (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #77 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $122,649 (70.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.30% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.02%
• DSCR: 0.33
• GRM: 28.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,000
• List price: $415,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $133,110
• Equity at exit: $373,865

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $464,345
• Equity at exit: $806,254

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65785

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 28.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $894/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-1,455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,068

Max offer price $158,008

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,220	-5% $-1,337	+0% $-1,455	+5% $-1,572	+10% $-2,186
Rent	-10% $-1,552	-5% $-1,503	+0% $-1,455	+5% $-1,406	+10% $-1,358
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,246	-0.5pp $-1,349	base $-1,455	+0.5pp $-1,562	+1.0pp $-1,672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 1915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1915 chars)

   Set on 40 wooded acres just north of Stockton, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath cabin offers privacy, recreation, and income potential in a highly desirable Stockton Lake area. A spring-fed, stocked one-acre pond sits near the home, with mature timber and managed habitat surrounding the improvements. The cabin has been updated with respect for its original character, with new flooring, fresh paint, and an efficient, welcoming kitchen featuring butcher block counters and warm wood accents. Selling fully furnished, the cabin is truly move-in ready--whether you plan to use it for weekend stays or quickly prepare it for guests. The main living area offers an open-concept layout with a gas stove, A-frame ceiling, and glass doors overlooking the timber, plus a main-floor bedroom and full bath for practical everyday use or guest convenience. The loft level overlooks the great room and provides flexible space for a second living area, office, or bunkroom. The walkout basement adds meaningful versatility with its own entrance, kitchen, living area, bedroom, and office or nonconforming bedroom--well suited for multi-generational living, guest quarters, or a separate short-term rental suite in a market that already supports strong cabin-style vacation rentals. Outdoor living spaces include an enclosed lower porch, covered back porch, and open front deck, along with a shed and greenhouse for storage and gardening. The land is a core asset: mature timber, a trail system, and a well-planned food plot mix of clover, turnips, cowpeas, and winter wheat support healthy habitat consistent with QDMA/NDA Deer Steward principles and attract whitetail deer, turkey, and other wildlife. For a buyer seeking a full-time residence with acreage, a second home to enjoy on weekends, or an income-producing retreat near Stockton Lake, this property offers a rare combination of setting, functionality, and long-term potential.

2. 2026-05-01
   price $415,000 1915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1915 chars)

   Set on 40 wooded acres just north of Stockton, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath cabin offers privacy, recreation, and income potential in a highly desirable Stockton Lake area. A spring-fed, stocked one-acre pond sits near the home, with mature timber and managed habitat surrounding the improvements. The cabin has been updated with respect for its original character, with new flooring, fresh paint, and an efficient, welcoming kitchen featuring butcher block counters and warm wood accents. Selling fully furnished, the cabin is truly move-in ready--whether you plan to use it for weekend stays or quickly prepare it for guests. The main living area offers an open-concept layout with a gas stove, A-frame ceiling, and glass doors overlooking the timber, plus a main-floor bedroom and full bath for practical everyday use or guest convenience. The loft level overlooks the great room and provides flexible space for a second living area, office, or bunkroom. The walkout basement adds meaningful versatility with its own entrance, kitchen, living area, bedroom, and office or nonconforming bedroom--well suited for multi-generational living, guest quarters, or a separate short-term rental suite in a market that already supports strong cabin-style vacation rentals. Outdoor living spaces include an enclosed lower porch, covered back porch, and open front deck, along with a shed and greenhouse for storage and gardening. The land is a core asset: mature timber, a trail system, and a well-planned food plot mix of clover, turnips, cowpeas, and winter wheat support healthy habitat consistent with QDMA/NDA Deer Steward principles and attract whitetail deer, turkey, and other wildlife. For a buyer seeking a full-time residence with acreage, a second home to enjoy on weekends, or an income-producing retreat near Stockton Lake, this property offers a rare combination of setting, functionality, and long-term potential.

3. 2026-03-01
   price $425,000 1915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1915 chars)

   Set on 40 wooded acres just north of Stockton, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath cabin offers privacy, recreation, and income potential in a highly desirable Stockton Lake area. A spring-fed, stocked one-acre pond sits near the home, with mature timber and managed habitat surrounding the improvements. The cabin has been updated with respect for its original character, with new flooring, fresh paint, and an efficient, welcoming kitchen featuring butcher block counters and warm wood accents. Selling fully furnished, the cabin is truly move-in ready--whether you plan to use it for weekend stays or quickly prepare it for guests. The main living area offers an open-concept layout with a gas stove, A-frame ceiling, and glass doors overlooking the timber, plus a main-floor bedroom and full bath for practical everyday use or guest convenience. The loft level overlooks the great room and provides flexible space for a second living area, office, or bunkroom. The walkout basement adds meaningful versatility with its own entrance, kitchen, living area, bedroom, and office or nonconforming bedroom--well suited for multi-generational living, guest quarters, or a separate short-term rental suite in a market that already supports strong cabin-style vacation rentals. Outdoor living spaces include an enclosed lower porch, covered back porch, and open front deck, along with a shed and greenhouse for storage and gardening. The land is a core asset: mature timber, a trail system, and a well-planned food plot mix of clover, turnips, cowpeas, and winter wheat support healthy habitat consistent with QDMA/NDA Deer Steward principles and attract whitetail deer, turkey, and other wildlife. For a buyer seeking a full-time residence with acreage, a second home to enjoy on weekends, or an income-producing retreat near Stockton Lake, this property offers a rare combination of setting, functionality, and long-term potential.

4. 2026-01-19
   price $450,000 1915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1915 chars)

   Set on 40 wooded acres just north of Stockton, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath cabin offers privacy, recreation, and income potential in a highly desirable Stockton Lake area. A spring-fed, stocked one-acre pond sits near the home, with mature timber and managed habitat surrounding the improvements. The cabin has been updated with respect for its original character, with new flooring, fresh paint, and an efficient, welcoming kitchen featuring butcher block counters and warm wood accents. Selling fully furnished, the cabin is truly move-in ready--whether you plan to use it for weekend stays or quickly prepare it for guests. The main living area offers an open-concept layout with a gas stove, A-frame ceiling, and glass doors overlooking the timber, plus a main-floor bedroom and full bath for practical everyday use or guest convenience. The loft level overlooks the great room and provides flexible space for a second living area, office, or bunkroom. The walkout basement adds meaningful versatility with its own entrance, kitchen, living area, bedroom, and office or nonconforming bedroom--well suited for multi-generational living, guest quarters, or a separate short-term rental suite in a market that already supports strong cabin-style vacation rentals. Outdoor living spaces include an enclosed lower porch, covered back porch, and open front deck, along with a shed and greenhouse for storage and gardening. The land is a core asset: mature timber, a trail system, and a well-planned food plot mix of clover, turnips, cowpeas, and winter wheat support healthy habitat consistent with QDMA/NDA Deer Steward principles and attract whitetail deer, turkey, and other wildlife. For a buyer seeking a full-time residence with acreage, a second home to enjoy on weekends, or an income-producing retreat near Stockton Lake, this property offers a rare combination of setting, functionality, and long-term potential.

5. 2025-11-24
   listed $475,000 Active 1915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1915 chars)

   Set on 40 wooded acres just north of Stockton, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath cabin offers privacy, recreation, and income potential in a highly desirable Stockton Lake area. A spring-fed, stocked one-acre pond sits near the home, with mature timber and managed habitat surrounding the improvements. The cabin has been updated with respect for its original character, with new flooring, fresh paint, and an efficient, welcoming kitchen featuring butcher block counters and warm wood accents. Selling fully furnished, the cabin is truly move-in ready--whether you plan to use it for weekend stays or quickly prepare it for guests. The main living area offers an open-concept layout with a gas stove, A-frame ceiling, and glass doors overlooking the timber, plus a main-floor bedroom and full bath for practical everyday use or guest convenience. The loft level overlooks the great room and provides flexible space for a second living area, office, or bunkroom. The walkout basement adds meaningful versatility with its own entrance, kitchen, living area, bedroom, and office or nonconforming bedroom--well suited for multi-generational living, guest quarters, or a separate short-term rental suite in a market that already supports strong cabin-style vacation rentals. Outdoor living spaces include an enclosed lower porch, covered back porch, and open front deck, along with a shed and greenhouse for storage and gardening. The land is a core asset: mature timber, a trail system, and a well-planned food plot mix of clover, turnips, cowpeas, and winter wheat support healthy habitat consistent with QDMA/NDA Deer Steward principles and attract whitetail deer, turkey, and other wildlife. For a buyer seeking a full-time residence with acreage, a second home to enjoy on weekends, or an income-producing retreat near Stockton Lake, this property offers a rare combination of setting, functionality, and long-term potential.

6. 2023-06-21
   soldstatus
7. 2023-06-20
   soldstatus Closed 934-char remark

   Show marketing remark (934 chars)

   Incredible Ozarks Outdoors Retreat on 40 acres with a one-acre spring-fed stocked pond! You've got to see this unique mountain-inspired home nestled in the trees in northern Cedar County. The main level of the home features soaring ceilings and rustic accents throughout the main living areas, efficient kitchen, and main bedroom and bath. Upstairs in the loft, you'll find a second seating area as well as the current office, which could be used as a bunk room. Downstairs is a fully finished basement with a complete kitchen, space for dining, 2 bedrooms ( 1 non-conforming), bath, and enclosed porch. The 40 acres is full of whitetail deer, wild turkey, and small game, not to mention plenty. of marketable timber. Make it a family hunting retreat, landing pad between Stockton, Truman, and Pomme de Terre Lakes, two separate income units, or just call it home forever. Either way, the peace and tranquility here is just unmatched!

8. 2023-05-09
   status Pending 934-char remark

   Show marketing remark (934 chars)

   Incredible Ozarks Outdoors Retreat on 40 acres with a one-acre spring-fed stocked pond! You've got to see this unique mountain-inspired home nestled in the trees in northern Cedar County. The main level of the home features soaring ceilings and rustic accents throughout the main living areas, efficient kitchen, and main bedroom and bath. Upstairs in the loft, you'll find a second seating area as well as the current office, which could be used as a bunk room. Downstairs is a fully finished basement with a complete kitchen, space for dining, 2 bedrooms ( 1 non-conforming), bath, and enclosed porch. The 40 acres is full of whitetail deer, wild turkey, and small game, not to mention plenty. of marketable timber. Make it a family hunting retreat, landing pad between Stockton, Truman, and Pomme de Terre Lakes, two separate income units, or just call it home forever. Either way, the peace and tranquility here is just unmatched!

9. 2023-04-28
   price $349,900 934-char remark

   Show marketing remark (934 chars)

   Incredible Ozarks Outdoors Retreat on 40 acres with a one-acre spring-fed stocked pond! You've got to see this unique mountain-inspired home nestled in the trees in northern Cedar County. The main level of the home features soaring ceilings and rustic accents throughout the main living areas, efficient kitchen, and main bedroom and bath. Upstairs in the loft, you'll find a second seating area as well as the current office, which could be used as a bunk room. Downstairs is a fully finished basement with a complete kitchen, space for dining, 2 bedrooms ( 1 non-conforming), bath, and enclosed porch. The 40 acres is full of whitetail deer, wild turkey, and small game, not to mention plenty. of marketable timber. Make it a family hunting retreat, landing pad between Stockton, Truman, and Pomme de Terre Lakes, two separate income units, or just call it home forever. Either way, the peace and tranquility here is just unmatched!

10. 2022-11-01
    listed $399,900 Active 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    Incredible Ozarks Outdoors Retreat on 40 acres with a one-acre spring-fed stocked pond! You've got to see this unique mountain-inspired home nestled in the trees in northern Cedar County. The main level of the home features soaring ceilings and rustic accents throughout the main living areas, efficient kitchen, and main bedroom and bath. Upstairs in the loft, you'll find a second seating area as well as the current office, which could be used as a bunk room. Downstairs is a fully finished basement with a complete kitchen, space for dining, 2 bedrooms ( 1 non-conforming), bath, and enclosed porch. The 40 acres is full of whitetail deer, wild turkey, and small game, not to mention plenty. of marketable timber. Make it a family hunting retreat, landing pad between Stockton, Truman, and Pomme de Terre Lakes, two separate income units, or just call it home forever. Either way, the peace and tranquility here is just unmatched!

11. 2022-08-25
    price $399,900
12. 2022-06-18
    listed $449,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $894 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,132/yr (+$261/mo · 350.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$894
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,177
• − Management: −$1,177
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$25,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,222
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton R-I
• NCES district ID: 2929520
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,609
• Composite: 39.32/100
• National rank: #3989
• State rank: #77 of 324 in MO

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #18379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,538

Population outlook (Cedar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,424 people
• By 2030: 13,080 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 12,434 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 11,841 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,171 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 7,744 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cedar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+65.9 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 293.8984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $415,000 SOMO
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $425,000 SOMO
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $450,000 SOMO
• 2025-11-24 Listed $475,000 SOMO
• 2023-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-20 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2023-05-09 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-04-28 Price Changed $349,900 SOMO
• 2022-11-01 Listed $399,900 SOMO
• 2022-08-25 Price Changed $399,900 SOMO
• 2022-06-18 Listed $449,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $894 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.