14789 Jurata Ct

Rancho Murieta, CA 95683

$264,999D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,989/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$171
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-168/mo
• Annual: $-2,022/yr
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (24.9% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#709 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cosumnes River Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #232 of 1,571 statewide, top 16%, 361 students, 15% FRL); Katherine L. Albiani Middle (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B+, #57 of 498 statewide, top 12%, 1,307 students, 27% FRL); Pleasant Grove High (math 57% / reading 74%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,520 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 21% FRL vs 43% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.3% in Rancho Murieta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.