14789 Jurata Ct · Rancho Murieta, CA 95683

$264,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1983 3,960 sqft lot $173/sqft · 6% below area Est $290k · 9% under $171/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious manufactured home nestled in a charming 55+ community where you own the land no space rent required! A 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort, convenience, and an inviting atmosphere. Relax on the cozy covered front porch, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or visiting with friends. Inside, the bright and cheerful kitchen opens seamlessly to the family room, creating a warm and functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. With just a few personal touches, you can easily make this home your own. Residents enjoy fantastic community amenities, including a beautiful clubhouse, sparkling pool, and soothing spa. Gated RV and boat storage is also a

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Bright kitchen
• Clubhouse

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• SOOTHING SPA
• GATED RV STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.3% in Rancho Murieta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#709 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cosumnes River Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #232 of 1,571 statewide, top 16%, 361 students, 15% FRL); Katherine L. Albiani Middle (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B+, #57 of 498 statewide, top 12%, 1,307 students, 27% FRL); Pleasant Grove High (math 57% / reading 74%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,520 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 21% FRL vs 43% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,909 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,000
• List price: $264,999
• Delta: -8.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14784 Jurata Ct	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	4mo	$290,000	$201	85
7345 Sonora Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+2%)	12mo	$385,000	$247	83
14785 Vallero Way	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (+4%)	8mo	$330,000	$208	80
14708 Hernandez Sq	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,584 (+3%)	13mo	$170,000	$107	74
14567 Poncho Conde Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+2%)	17mo	$350,000	$223	74
14789 Vallero Way	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	20mo	$350,000	$243	71
7380 Carmella Cir	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	8mo	$250,000	$179	70
7326 Sonora Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (-12%)	10mo	$347,500	$257	61
14605 Poncho Conde Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (-12%)	14mo	$360,000	$266	60
7300 Golden Cir	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	18mo	$269,000	$200	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-53,698
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-60,684
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95683

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$171
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,202

Max offer price $235,235

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-93	+0% $-168	+5% $-243	+10% $-318
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-247	+0% $-168	+5% $-90	+10% $-11
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-101	base $-168	+0.5pp $-237	+1.0pp $-307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $171 · $2,052/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,999 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,999 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,999 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,999 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,999 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,999 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,999 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,999 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,999 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,999 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $264,999 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,999 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,999 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,999 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,999 Active 69 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $825 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,014 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,189/yr (+$99/mo · 144.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − HOA: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$6,705
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,609
• After-tax cash flow: $-413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Murieta

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #709
• US rank: #21275

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Murieta, CA
• City population: 6,128
• Population (ZIP): 6,128

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.21%
• Current HPI: 290.9573
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $825 · +300.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.