8232 Watercourse Way

Jacksonville, FL 32211

$189,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,338 sqft · Built 2022 · Townhouse · Active · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,669/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$346
• HOA: −$117
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-136/mo
• Annual: $-1,628/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $189k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (11.7% below list).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parkwood Heights Elementary School (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 276 students, 73% FRL); Arlington Middle School (math 23% / reading 21%, grade F, #549 of 571 statewide, top 97%, 798 students, 74% FRL); Terry Parker High School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,353 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 49% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.