3130 Laurel Run Rd

Mill Hall, PA 16822

$199,000D-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,190 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,441/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$272
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-177/mo
• Annual: $-2,121/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (27.6% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $398 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#511 in PA, #4,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Keystone Central SD (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #384 of 539 in PA (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Mountain Ms (math 21% / reading 42%, grade F, #367 of 512 statewide, top 73%, 939 students, 55% FRL); Central Mountain Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 1,127 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Keystone Central SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clinton County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.