3130 Laurel Run Rd · Mill Hall, PA 16822

$199,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,190 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1900 16 ac lot $91/sqft · 47% below area ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come enjoy over 15 acres of outdoor adventure, hiking and solitude in your own backyard. This 2600+ sq ft building has been cleared out and is ready to be brought back to life to relive it's glory days as a 4 bedroom, 1 bath camp, or turn this blank slate into the country home you have been searching for! Additional acres are available surrounding the property, ask about parcel 49J and 49 G.

Key facts

• 15.5 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 177 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#511 in PA, #4,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Keystone Central SD (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #384 of 539 in PA (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Mountain Ms (math 21% / reading 42%, grade F, #367 of 512 statewide, top 73%, 939 students, 55% FRL); Central Mountain Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 1,127 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Keystone Central SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $398 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Clinton County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,105 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $452,594
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -56.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-15,214
• Equity at exit: $59,780

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $443
• Equity at exit: $73,472

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16822

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,597/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,665

Max offer price $167,784

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-120	+0% $-177	+5% $-233	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-291	-5% $-234	+0% $-177	+5% $-120	+10% $-63
Rate	-1.0pp $-76	-0.5pp $-126	base $-177	+0.5pp $-228	+1.0pp $-281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 159 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 158 DOM
16. 2025-12-22
    listed $199,000 Active 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Come enjoy over 15 acres of outdoor adventure, hiking and solitude in your own backyard. This 2600+ sq ft building has been cleared out and is ready to be brought back to life to relive it's glory days as a 4 bedroom, 1 bath camp, or turn this blank slate into the country home you have been searching for! Additional acres are available surrounding the property, ask about parcel 49J and 49 G.

17. 2024-12-16
    soldstatus $140,000
18. 2024-12-05
    soldstatus Closed 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Camp on 37+/- acres in the beautiful Beech Creek area. Bring this old camp back to life and enjoy all the adventures of outdoor living! The property has been vacant for several years and needs a lot of TLC. Great for hunting and hiking. Call Jodi Embick at [phone].

19. 2024-11-04
    status Pending 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Camp on 37+/- acres in the beautiful Beech Creek area. Bring this old camp back to life and enjoy all the adventures of outdoor living! The property has been vacant for several years and needs a lot of TLC. Great for hunting and hiking. Call Jodi Embick at [phone].

20. 2024-10-18
    listed $199,000 Active 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Camp on 37+/- acres in the beautiful Beech Creek area. Bring this old camp back to life and enjoy all the adventures of outdoor living! The property has been vacant for several years and needs a lot of TLC. Great for hunting and hiking. Call Jodi Embick at [phone].

21. 2024-05-31
    price $259,000
22. 2024-04-27
    listed $279,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,597 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,371 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$773/yr (+$64/mo · 48.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,597
• − Insurance: −$1,662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,383
• − Management: −$1,383
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$5,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,361
• After-tax cash flow: $-760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keystone Central SD
• NCES district ID: 4212725
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,713
• Composite: 32.09/100
• National rank: #5810
• State rank: #384 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mill Hall

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #511
• US rank: #4669

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,898

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,048 people
• By 2030: 38,812 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 38,011 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 36,931 · -5.4%
• By 2075: 34,077 · -12.7%
• By 2100: 29,683 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Polish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.1% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.1pp toward R · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+36.3 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+11.3 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.20%
• Current HPI: 188.9535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-28.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-22 Listed $199,000 WBVAR
• 2024-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-05 Sold (MLS) — WBVAR
• 2024-11-04 Pending — WBVAR
• 2024-10-18 Listed $199,000 WBVAR
• 2024-05-31 Price Changed $259,000 WBVAR
• 2024-04-27 Listed $279,000 WBVAR

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,597 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.