7182 Hilliard Cir

Bowling Green, KY 42122

$385,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · Built 2022 · Other · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,859/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax + insurance: −$435
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $-195/mo
• Annual: $-2,340/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $107,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (25.7% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $286k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #48 of 165 in KY (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alvaton Elementary (math 43% / reading 49%, grade D-, #137 of 676 statewide, top 21%, 744 students, 53% FRL); Drakes Creek Middle School (math 48% / reading 61%, grade B-, #12 of 217 statewide, top 5%, 729 students, 54% FRL); Greenwood High School (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #30 of 254 statewide, top 12%, 1,370 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,286 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (1,410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Bowling Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.