7182 Hilliard Cir · Bowling Green, KY 42122

$385,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · Other · 51 Days on market

Built 2022 10,454 sqft lot $166/sqft · 8% below area Est $420k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Better Than New! Stylish Lexington Plan Packed with Premium Upgrades! Welcome to 7182 Hilliard Circle, where comfort, style, and convenience come together in this beautifully maintained one-level home featuring the popular Lexington Plan. This move-in ready property offers an open-concept design perfect for both everyday living and entertaining, with spacious living areas, a well-appointed kitchen, and generously sized bedrooms that provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or additional living space. With no stairs, this home is ideal for easy living and long-term comfort. Step outside to enjoy the fully fenced backyard, perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings in your own private

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Conveniently located
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR RETREAT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Natural gas heating
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Located in Upton Farms subdivision
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot about 0.24 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Two main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Security system; Accessible full bath
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Bowling Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #48 of 165 in KY (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alvaton Elementary (math 43% / reading 49%, grade D-, #137 of 676 statewide, top 21%, 744 students, 53% FRL); Drakes Creek Middle School (math 48% / reading 61%, grade B-, #12 of 217 statewide, top 5%, 729 students, 54% FRL); Greenwood High School (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #30 of 254 statewide, top 12%, 1,370 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,286 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (1,410 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,947 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $420,301
• List price: $385,000
• Delta: -8.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-74,890
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-81,546
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42122

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,295/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,106

Max offer price $350,553

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-86	+0% $-195	+5% $-304	+10% $-413
Rent	-10% $-421	-5% $-308	+0% $-195	+5% $-82	+10% $31
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-97	base $-195	+0.5pp $-295	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7113 Hilliard Cir Alvaton, KY	4.0	2.5	3090	$2,995	$0.97	45d	1	0.12mi
457 Adalynn Cir Bowling Green, KY	4.0	2.0	1747	$2,500	$1.43	45d	1	1.18mi
472 Crossfield Way Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	22d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $385,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $385,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $385,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $385,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $385,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $385,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $385,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $385,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $385,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $385,000 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $385,000 Active 1004-char remark
19. 2025-07-31
    historical $2,450
20. 2025-07-19
    listed $2,450
21. 2025-05-19
    price $405,000
22. 2025-05-05
    price $412,900
23. 2025-04-09
    listed $419,900 Active
24. 2022-05-24
    soldstatus $371,955
25. 2022-02-26
    listed $371,955
26. 2022-02-02
    listed $371,955
27. 2022-01-02
    listed $366,955
28. 2021-12-01
    listed $366,955
29. 2021-11-04
    listed $366,955
30. 2021-10-01
    listed $366,955
31. 2021-09-01
    listed $364,996
32. 2021-08-16
    listed $364,996
33. 2021-08-01
    listed $364,996
34. 2021-07-14
    listed $364,996

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,295 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,311 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$16/yr (+$1/mo · 0.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$3,295
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,745
• − Management: −$2,745
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$9,163
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,199
• After-tax cash flow: $-141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County
• NCES district ID: 2105730
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $50,092
• Composite: 31.55/100
• National rank: #5958
• State rank: #48 of 165 in KY

Livability — Bowling Green

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #12782

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 129,408
• Population (ZIP): 5,362

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,620 people
• By 2030: 155,977 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 179,381 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 203,713 · +40.9%
• By 2075: 267,291 · +84.8%
• By 2100: 314,019 · +117.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 37.0% · R 61.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+16.8 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.18%
• Current HPI: 225.8273
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+5.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $385,000 RASKMLS
• 2025-07-31 Rental Removed $2,450 RASKMLS
• 2025-07-19 Listed for Rent $2,450 RASKMLS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $405,000 RASKMLS
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $412,900 RASKMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed $419,900 RASKMLS
• 2022-05-24 Sold (MLS) $371,955 RASKMLS
• 2022-02-26 Listed $371,955 RASKMLS
• 2022-02-02 Listed $371,955 RASKMLS
• 2022-01-02 Listed $366,955 RASKMLS
• 2021-12-01 Listed $366,955 RASKMLS
• 2021-11-04 Listed $366,955 RASKMLS
• 2021-10-01 Listed $366,955 RASKMLS
• 2021-09-01 Listed $364,996 RASKMLS
• 2021-08-16 Listed $364,996 RASKMLS
• 2021-08-01 Listed $364,996 RASKMLS
• 2021-07-14 Listed $364,996 RASKMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,295 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.