10316 Heritage Bay Blvd #2712

Heritage Bay, FL 34120

$450,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · Built 2010 · Condo · Active · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,162/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$757
• HOA: −$1,171
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,084
• Net cashflow: $-210/mo
• Annual: $-2,515/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $413k (8.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $396k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Corkscrew Elementary School (math 76% / reading 73%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 863 students, 35% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1124 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $249k; list at $450k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→33/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,162/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($94k/yr) (locally 409% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?