10316 Heritage Bay Blvd #2712 · Heritage Bay, FL 34120

$450,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · Condo public records · 157 Days on market

Built 2010 $1171/mo HOA · 23% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged, AI generated or rendered. Very nicely updated Barrington model Veranda condo with southeastern lake & golf green views! The Barrington features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, a den, a one car detached garage and both a front and back screened lanai! This condo has been well upgraded, including single level Quartz countertop and white kitchen cabinets, luxury VP flooring in both bedrooms and the den, newer AC, new fans and light fixtures, freshly painted walls and more! Heritage Bay features a stunning 27-hole Lewis-Azinger designed golf course and aqua driving range. The grand clubhouse offers diverse dining options, elegant event spaces, and a li

Key facts

• Newer ac
• Luxury vp flooring
• Golf green views

Tags

• SOUTHEASTERN LAKE VIEWS
• GOLF GREEN VIEWS
• SINGLE LEVEL QUARTZ COUNTERTOP
• WHITE KITCHEN CABINETS
• LUXURY VP FLOORING
• NEWER AC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a large complex (approx. 1,250 units) with 12 units in the building
• Financial info: Total annual recurring fees (association): $15,056; Total one-time fees: $13,650
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Master HOA fee billed annually; Condo fee billed quarterly; Master HOA covers cable, golf course, internet/WiFi access, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, security, water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community spa/hot tub, exercise/fitness room (attended), golf course (golf bundled), bocce court, putting green, tennis courts, pickleball, restaurant, cabana, community room, library; Community type: gated, golf course, tennis

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage; Guest parking
• Security: Gated community; Guard at gate; Patrolled
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low rise (1-3) building design; 2-story carriage/coach style; Rear exposure facing south
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Impact resistant windows and doors; Built in 2010; Foundation: (not specified)
• Exterior features: Patio; Golf course view; Lake/pond/preserve/water views; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Dining (living) area; Dishwasher; Disposal; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator/ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with dual sinks
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; Smoke detectors; Vaulted ceiling; Great room floor plan; Den (study); Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $413k (8.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
• Recommended offer: $396k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Corkscrew Elementary School (math 76% / reading 73%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 863 students, 35% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1124 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,162/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($94k/yr) (locally 409% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $249k; list at $450k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→33/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $396,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-100,595
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-159,995
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34120

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1124
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,162 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$417 /mo · $5,009/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$1,171
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,084
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,428

Max offer price $412,974

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10307 Heritage Bay Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,800	$2.35	13d	1	0.03mi
10317 Heritage Bay Blvd #1416 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$7,000	$5.68	23d	1	0.05mi
10321 Heritage Bay Blvd Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1320	$6,500	$4.92	21d	2	0.05mi
10321 Heritage Bay Blvd Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1301	$5,400	$4.15	23d	3	0.05mi
10330 Heritage Bay Blvd #2626 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$6,900	$4.88	23d	1	0.06mi
10313 Heritage Bay Blvd #1342 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$6,500	$5.28	23d	1	0.06mi
10329 Heritage Bay Blvd #1622 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$5,500	$4.46	23d	1	0.09mi
10333 Heritage Bay Blvd #1715 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$6,000	$5.03	23d	1	0.10mi
10338 Heritage Bay Blvd #2514 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,500	$1.77	23d	1	0.11mi
10337 Heritage Bay Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1213	$4,400	$3.63	23d	4	0.13mi
10345 Heritage Bay Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$4,425	$3.59	13d	2	0.22mi
10349 Heritage Bay Blvd #2117 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	13d	1	0.25mi
10353 Heritage Bay Blvd #2226 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$6,500	$5.28	23d	1	0.29mi
10353 Heritage Bay Blvd #2226 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$6,500	$5.28	13d	1	0.29mi
10270 Heritage Bay Blvd #3422 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$6,500	$4.60	23d	1	0.33mi
10275 Heritage Bay Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$4,500	$3.46	23d	2	0.33mi
10307 Gator Bay Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1855	$9,900	$5.34	23d	1	0.93mi
10044 Siesta Bay Dr #9412 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,500	$1.77	23d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,171 · $14,052/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $450,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $450,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-04-26
    price $450,000
16. 2026-03-20
    price $465,000
17. 2026-01-30
    price $479,900
18. 2026-01-12
    listed $499,900 Active
19. 2025-12-31
    historical
20. 2025-12-06
    listed $499,000 Active
21. 2025-12-05
    historical
22. 2025-09-26
    price $499,000
23. 2025-07-03
    listed $519,000 Active
24. 2018-11-15
    soldstatus $249,000
25. 2018-11-09
    soldstatus $249,000 Sold
26. 2018-10-10
    status Pending With Contingencies
27. 2018-09-22
    price $259,900
28. 2018-03-06
    listed $269,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,009 · $417/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,009 · $417/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 33 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$5,009
• − Insurance: −$4,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,956
• − Management: −$4,956
• − HOA: −$14,052
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$9,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,255
• After-tax cash flow: $-260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Heritage Bay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heritage Bay, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,345
• Household income: $93,861
• Rent vs Own: 9.4% rent · 90.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 409.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 13%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 28% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.18%
• Current HPI: 316.2474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $450,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $465,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $479,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $499,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-06 Listed $499,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $499,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $519,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $249,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-09 Sold (MLS) $249,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-10-10 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2018-09-22 Price Changed $259,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-03-06 Listed $269,900 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,009 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.