2801 Virginia Pine Dr

Bartow, FL 33830

$274,530F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,269 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,945/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,440
• Tax + insurance: −$386
• HOA: −$16
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-305/mo
• Annual: $-3,663/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $76,868

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (29.1% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $195k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#526 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spessard L Holland Elementary (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 766 students, 52% FRL); Bartow Middle School (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #421 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,046 students, 63% FRL); Bartow Senior High School (math 26% / reading 46%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 2,125 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.