2801 Virginia Pine Dr · Bartow, FL 33830

$274,530

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,269 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2025 4,800 sqft lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home available NOW! The Denali's elongated foyer impresses upon entry. A chef-inspired kitchen overlooks the great room, dining nook and patio. Primary suite in the back of home features dual-sink vanity, walk-in shower and walk-in closet. The Grove at Stuart Crossing Premier Series features single-family homes with open-concept floorplans in Bartow, FL. Convenient to several major highways, this community is ideal for those who commute to Lakeland, Tampa and Orlando. Residents will enjoy amazing amenities that include a resort-style pool, clubhouse, fitness center, pickleball courts, playground, dog park, and trails in a beautiful "old Florida" settin

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Total lot about 0.17 acres (40x120)
• Financial info: CDD present
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Home River Group; Monthly HOA $16 (includes pool and recreational facilities); Community features: deed restrictions, fitness center, playground, pool, basketball and pickleball courts; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (18x20)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Southwest facing; Completed condition
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Meritage Homes (Denali model)
• Exterior features: Patio; Sidewalk; Public maintained asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#526 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spessard L Holland Elementary (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 766 students, 52% FRL); Bartow Middle School (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #421 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,046 students, 63% FRL); Bartow Senior High School (math 26% / reading 46%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 2,125 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $194,505 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-64,480
• Equity at exit: $40,933

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-83,433
• Equity at exit: $23,736

Cash invested: $76,868 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33830

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,945 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,440
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,262/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,331

Max offer price $220,601

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-150	-5% $-228	+0% $-305	+5% $-383	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-459	-5% $-382	+0% $-305	+5% $-228	+10% $-152
Rate	-1.0pp $-167	-0.5pp $-235	base $-305	+0.5pp $-376	+1.0pp $-449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,632
• Closing costs: $8,236
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 W Easy St Bartow, FL	3.0	1.0	912	$1,800	$1.97	16d	1	0.62mi
550 W Easy St Bartow, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,800	$1.97	16d	1	0.66mi
1025 Retreat Dr Bartow, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1494	$2,100	$1.41	5d	6	0.67mi
1350 N Wilson Ave Bartow, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,649	$1.85	5d	6	0.70mi
980 Waldon Ave Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,550	$1.48	25d	1	1.21mi
1586 Caroline Ct Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,885	$1.36	16d	1	1.23mi
710 Childs Ave Unit 1 Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1137	$2,100	$1.85	25d	1	1.30mi
925 Tangelo Cir Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1681	$2,200	$1.31	16d	1	1.36mi
1070 E Church St Unit A Bartow, FL	4.0	2.5	1362	$1,850	$1.36	16d	1	1.38mi
1070 E Church St Bartow, FL	4.0	2.5	1384	$1,900	$1.37	16d	1	1.38mi
550 Battle Ave Unit 550 Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1708	$1,250	$0.73	5d	1	1.45mi
1465 E Boulevard St Bartow, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $274,530 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,262 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,262 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,378
• − Property taxes: −$3,262
• − Insurance: −$1,373
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,867
• − Management: −$1,867
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$7,986
• Taxable loss: −$8,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,060
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bartow

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #9835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bartow, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,740
• Household income: $63,918
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 681.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 18% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.47%
• Current HPI: 333.3392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Listed $274,530 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid