111 Longleaf Pines Dr

Raeford, NC 28376

$235,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,211 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,753/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$209
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-56/mo
• Annual: $-673/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-673/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (25.4% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $175k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#39 in NC, #3,562 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Don D Steed Elementary (math 51% / reading 45%, grade D, #477 of 1,410 statewide, top 35%, 677 students, 100% FRL); East Hoke Middle (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #273 of 475 statewide, top 58%, 780 students, 100% FRL); Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 57% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $235k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.