111 Longleaf Pines Dr · Raeford, NC 28376

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,211 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $228k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! This gorgeous three bedroom two bathroom ranch is sure to impress you as soon as you walk in the door. This home boasts an open floor concept, cathedral ceilings, and natural lighting that gives it a light and airy feel. You will be able to tell that the owners put a lot of pride and love in their home-from the gourmet kitchen that includes updated cabinetry, soft close drawers, hands free kitchen sink faucet, updated granite, and pendant lighting to the updated flooring and paint throughout the home. With the weather warming up, you'll love barbecuing on the deck in your back yard that has a line of trees and privacy fence that gives you seclusion. If all of that is not enough to make you want to call this house home, you can sit back and relax knowing that this home comes with not only a brand new HVAC system, but a brand new roof to match so be sure to add this home to your must see list before it goes under contract!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered garage spaces (2-car garage)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank and holding tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Cleared, interior lot; Paved public road access; Subdivision: TARHEEL PINES
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch with front porch; Fenced backyard with privacy fencing; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Granite countertops; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in bathroom(s)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceiling; Open floorplan; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Granite countertops; Double vanity; Walk-in closets; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-673/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#39 in NC, #3,562 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Don D Steed Elementary (math 51% / reading 45%, grade D, #477 of 1,410 statewide, top 35%, 677 students, 100% FRL); East Hoke Middle (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #273 of 475 statewide, top 58%, 780 students, 100% FRL); Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 57% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $235k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,309 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $227,668
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Longleaf Pines Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+0%)	13mo	$229,000	$188	86
306 Longleaf Pines Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+1%)	10mo	$231,000	$189	82
214 Longleaf Pines Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,245 (+3%)	16mo	$228,500	$184	76
216 Longleaf Pines Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+9%)	15mo	$216,000	$163	66
124 Haywood Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+1%)	6mo	$244,000	$199	61
122 Davenport Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+1%)	12mo	$229,000	$188	58
114 Davenport Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+7%)	4mo	$235,000	$181	53
128 Davenport Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+3%)	21mo	$235,000	$189	47
122 Haywood Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+6%)	14mo	$231,000	$180	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-43,624
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-50,505
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28376

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,753 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,329/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,824

Max offer price $225,089

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
477 Northwoods Dr Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,700	$1.41	13d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   statusdays on market $235,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    listed $235,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,329 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$598/yr (+$50/mo · 45.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,329
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,683
• − Management: −$1,683
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,833
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,160
• After-tax cash flow: $487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Raeford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #3562

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hoke County · 44,880 people
• City population: 44,880
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 44,880
• Household income: $66,471
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.30%
• Current HPI: 169.1801
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+113.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Coming Soon $235,000 LPRMLS
• 2020-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-05 Sold (MLS) $135,000 LPRMLS
• 2020-06-05 Sold (MLS) $135,000 TMLS
• 2020-03-16 Listed $149,900 LPRMLS
• 2020-03-16 Listed $149,900 TMLS
• 2010-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,329 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.