1213 W Welland Rd

Phoenix, AZ 85041

$78,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,567/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $699/mo
• Annual: $8,391/yr
• Cap rate: 17.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.42%
• DSCR: 2.71
• 1% rule: 2.01%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $699 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Roosevelt Elementary District (4279) (urban): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #234 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Elementary School (math 9% / reading 16%, grade F, #937 of 1,109 statewide, top 85%, 534 students, 85% FRL); Cesar Chavez High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #281 of 381 statewide, top 75%, 2,725 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 36% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.