1213 W Welland Rd · Phoenix, AZ 85041

$78,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2000 Good condition 2,000 sqft lot $68/sqft · 13% below area Est $90k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.2

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-wide mobile home built in 2000 in this all ages community Mountain Gate Mobile Home Park. Comfort and value at a great price! This home features vaulted ceilings and skylights that bring in natural light, creating an open and airy feel throughout. Enjoy the convenience of a covered carport and additional storage with a private shed. Perfect for anyone looking for an affordable, well-maintained home--don't miss this opportunity! Requires park approval. Lot rent $820.00.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Vaulted ceilings
• Skylights

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHTS
• COVERED CARPORT
• PRIVATE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $699 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Roosevelt Elementary District (4279) (urban): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #234 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Elementary School (math 9% / reading 16%, grade F, #937 of 1,109 statewide, top 85%, 534 students, 85% FRL); Cesar Chavez High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #281 of 381 statewide, top 75%, 2,725 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 36% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,660 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.42%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,000
• List price: $78,000
• Delta: -13.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1305 W Summerside Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	14mo	$72,000	$63	86
821 W Kachina Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-1%)	13mo	$79,000	$69	76
1322 W Summerside Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	21mo	$100,000	$80	66
1002 W Kachina Trl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-11%)	13mo	$45,000	$44	63
9436 S 12 th Ave	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,000 (-13%)	6mo	$250,000	$250	61
9405 S 14th Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,057 (-8%)	19mo	$235,500	$223	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $27,326
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $63,484
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $78,000 ($73/sqft)
• Median days on market: 66 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85041

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$98 /mo · $1,170/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $682

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $753	-5% $726	+0% $699	+5% $672	+10% $645
Rent	-10% $575	-5% $637	+0% $699	+5% $761	+10% $823
Rate	-1.0pp $739	-0.5pp $719	base $699	+0.5pp $679	+1.0pp $658

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
916 W Piedmont Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	810	$1,445	$1.78	48d	1	0.28mi
728 W Buist Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1408	$1,595	$1.13	9d	1	0.34mi
9239 S 8th Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	143d	1	0.47mi
5134 W Western Star Blvd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1358	$2,150	$1.58	142d	1	0.52mi
9700 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1217	$2,112	$1.74	0d	5	0.94mi
301 W Desert Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,700	$1.21	0d	1	0.95mi
120 W Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	938	$1,199	$1.28	0d	6	0.98mi
26 E Paseo Way Unit 34 Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	1456	$2,445	$1.68	0d	1	1.07mi
37 E Paseo Way Unit 30 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1356	$2,045	$1.51	115d	1	1.08mi
8818 S Central Ave Apt 333 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,159	$1.45	0d	1	1.09mi
505 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,525	$1.22	115d	1	1.12mi
506 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,895	$1.51	99d	1	1.14mi
11 E Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1167	$2,170	$1.86	0d	3	1.15mi
114 E Beth Dr Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,300	$0.98	0d	1	1.18mi
8127 S 5th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1351	$1,865	$1.38	85d	1	1.20mi
8017 S 6th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1361	$2,099	$1.54	0d	1	1.23mi
8017 S 6th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,099	$1.55	63d	1	1.23mi
209 E Valley View Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,200	$0.87	135d	1	1.25mi
207 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,960	$1.49	104d	1	1.27mi
8122 S 2nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,845	$1.42	43d	1	1.28mi
8122 S 2nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,700	$1.17	50d	1	1.28mi
8123 S 2nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,245	$0.96	74d	1	1.29mi
8121 S 2nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,250	$0.96	74d	1	1.29mi
9004 S 4th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,845	$1.39	26d	1	1.29mi
141 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	1456	$2,088	$1.43	74d	1	1.30mi
524 W Harwell Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,250	$1.67	0d	1	1.31mi
136 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1499	$2,350	$1.57	102d	1	1.32mi
8350 S Central Ave Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1356	$2,295	$1.69	9d	1	1.36mi
8350 S Central Ave Unit 25 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1356	$2,295	$1.69	0d	1	1.36mi
8350 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1167	$2,120	$1.82	0d	3	1.36mi
8350 S Central Ave Unit 44 Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	1456	$2,495	$1.71	0d	1	1.36mi
606 W Beautiful Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1385	$2,150	$1.55	117d	1	1.36mi
504 W Beautiful Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,949	$1.48	125d	1	1.38mi
504 W Beautiful Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,939	$1.48	94d	1	1.38mi
8028 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	602	$1,300	$2.16	0d	1	1.46mi
9204 S 7th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,549	$1.29	0d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available
• HOA & community: Land lease community (land lease $820 monthly)No association fees includedCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered parking spaces3 carport spaces
• Utilities: City waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile homeLeasehold ownership
• Construction: Aluminum sidingWood frame constructionOther roof
• Exterior features: Desert front lotAsphalt road frontageNo fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveRefrigeratorDishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms (includes master bedroom)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningHeating present (other type)
• Interior features: Breakfast barFull bath in master bedroomRefrigeratorDishwasher

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $78,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $78,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $78,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-04-23
   listed $78,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,170
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $7,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,824
• After-tax cash flow: $6,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,760–$17,280 screening

This single-wide mobile home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and replacing gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 12/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southwest Elementary School F AZ #937/1,109 Nat'l #37,629/41,679 High Linda Abril Educational Academy

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roosevelt Elementary District (4279)
• NCES district ID: 0407080
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $42,813
• Composite: 9.74/100
• National rank: #9829
• State rank: #234 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 63,862
• Household income: $75,301
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 28% Black 15% White 13% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.81%
• Current HPI: 342.4961
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.84%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available
• HOA & community: Land lease community (land lease $820 monthly)No association fees includedCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered parking spaces3 carport spaces
• Utilities: City waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile homeLeasehold ownership
• Construction: Aluminum sidingWood frame constructionOther roof
• Exterior features: Desert front lotAsphalt road frontageNo fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveRefrigeratorDishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms (includes master bedroom)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningHeating present (other type)
• Interior features: Breakfast barFull bath in master bedroomRefrigeratorDishwasher

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $78,000 ARMLS