1213 W Welland Rd · Phoenix, AZ 85041

$78,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Built 2000 Good condition 2,000 sqft lot Est $92k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-wide mobile home built in 2000 in this all ages community Mountain Gate Mobile Home Park. Comfort and value at a great price! This home features vaulted ceilings and skylights that bring in natural light, creating an open and airy feel throughout. Enjoy the convenience of a covered carport and additional storage with a private shed. Perfect for anyone looking for an affordable, well-maintained home--don't miss this opportunity! Requires park approval. Lot rent $820.00.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Vaulted ceilings
• Skylights

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHTS
• COVERED CARPORT
• PRIVATE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available
• HOA & community: Land lease community (land lease $820 monthly); No association fees included; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered parking spaces; 3 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood frame construction; Other roof
• Exterior features: Desert front lot; Asphalt road frontage; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms (includes master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heating present (other type)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Full bath in master bedroom; Refrigerator; Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Roosevelt Elementary District (4279) (urban): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #234 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,660 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.74%
• DSCR: 4.01
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $92,160
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1305 W Summerside Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	10mo	$72,000	$63	90
821 W Kachina Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-1%)	8mo	$79,000	$69	80
1322 W Summerside Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	17mo	$100,000	$80	70
1002 W Kachina Trl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-11%)	8mo	$45,000	$44	67
9436 S 12 th Ave	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,000 (-13%)	1mo	$250,000	$250	64
9405 S 14th Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,057 (-8%)	14mo	$235,500	$223	62
818 W Buist Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,201 (+4%)	21mo	$256,500	$214	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $59,343
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $127,519
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85041

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,243 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$98 /mo · $1,170/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $1,233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $682

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9239 S 8th Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	3d	1	0.47mi
5134 W Western Star Blvd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1358	$2,150	$1.58	2d	1	0.52mi
9700 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1348	$2,411	$1.79	1d	5	0.94mi
120 W Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	938	$1,345	$1.43	1d	3	0.98mi
11 E Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1167	$2,045	$1.75	1d	4	1.15mi
207 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1319	$2,205	$1.67	1d	1	1.27mi
136 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1499	$2,350	$1.57	1d	1	1.32mi
8350 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1167	$2,070	$1.77	1d	8	1.36mi
105 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1499	$2,350	$1.57	1d	1	1.36mi
9204 S 7th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,549	$1.29	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $78,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $78,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $78,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-04-23
   listed $78,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,170
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,153
• − Management: −$2,153
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $14,410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,458
• After-tax cash flow: $11,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-wide mobile home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and replacing gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roosevelt Elementary District (4279)
• NCES district ID: 0407080
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $42,813
• Composite: 9.74/100
• National rank: #9829
• State rank: #234 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 63,862
• Household income: $75,301
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1473.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 28% Black 15% White 13% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.81%
• Current HPI: 342.4961
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.84%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $78,000 ARMLS