5560 Virginiatown Rd

Penryn, CA 95658

$427,500D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,256 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,991/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,242
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $-227/mo
• Annual: $-2,729/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $119,700

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $428k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $387k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (30.0% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $299k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#868 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Western Placer Unified (suburban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #148 of 517 in CA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlin C. Coppin Elementary (math 38% / reading 49%, grade F, #539 of 1,571 statewide, top 35%, 396 students, 45% FRL); Glen Edwards Middle (math 29% / reading 46%, grade F, #166 of 498 statewide, top 34%, 770 students, 42% FRL); Lincoln High (math 28% / reading 67%, grade D, #384 of 1,170 statewide, top 33%, 1,355 students, 33% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 0.6% in Penryn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.