21514 W 51st Ter

Shawnee, KS 66226

$425,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,362 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,410/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$615
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $-150/mo
• Annual: $-1,795/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $399k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (19.8% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $341k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#2 in KS, #276 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+.
• De Soto (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #3 of 169 in KS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Riverview Elementary (math 56% / reading 66%, grade B, #68 of 684 statewide, top 10%, 480 students, 8% FRL); Monticello Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #4 of 219 statewide, top 2%, 699 students, 8% FRL); Mill Valley High School (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #19 of 327 statewide, top 6%, 1,355 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,969 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (1,066 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 107% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Shawnee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.