21514 W 51st Ter · Shawnee, KS 66226

$425,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,362 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1998 0.42 ac lot Est $430k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous 2 story home in Shawnee's Brittany Heights. 4 BR, 2.5 BA located on oversized lot in cul-de-sac. HOA includes trash & pool. Yard is fenced & has an inground sprinkler system. Full walkout bsmt ready to be finished! New water heater 8/04. Laundry rm on BR level. Community Pool incl in HOA.

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Association includes trash service

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; 2-story floor plan; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction with shingle siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Wood fencing; Sprinkler system (in-ground); Located on a city lot and in a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Water softener
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the second level; Additional bedrooms on the second level
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Vinyl in some rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Bathrooms include double vanities and combinations of shower only and shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling (central air)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Eat-in kitchen and formal dining area; Full walk-out basement; One gas fireplace in the great room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on bedroom level; Vinyl flooring in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $399k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $341k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Shawnee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#2 in KS, #276 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+.
• De Soto (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #3 of 169 in KS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Riverview Elementary (math 56% / reading 66%, grade B, #68 of 684 statewide, top 10%, 480 students, 8% FRL); Monticello Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #4 of 219 statewide, top 2%, 699 students, 8% FRL); Mill Valley High School (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #19 of 327 statewide, top 6%, 1,355 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,969 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (1,066 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 107% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $340,997 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $429,884
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21514 W 51st Ter	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,362 (0%)	1mo	$425,000	$180	99
21610 W 49th St	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,363 (0%)	2mo	$430,000	$182	84
21218 W 51st St	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,259 (-4%)	1mo	$470,000	$208	80
21513 W 52nd St	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,250 (-5%)	0mo	$400,000	$178	78
4905 Lone Elm St	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,493 (+6%)	1mo	$440,000	$176	76
4726 Brockway St	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,369 (+0%)	0mo	$431,000	$182	72
21010 W 54 St	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,300 (-3%)	2mo	$450,000	$196	71
21721 W 52nd St	0.22mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,519 (+7%)	1mo	$435,000	$173	69
21436 W 48th. St	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,181 (-8%)	1mo	$420,000	$193	68
4811 Mund Rd	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,189 (-7%)	0mo	$425,000	$194	65
5117 Anderson St	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,639 (+12%)	0mo	$460,000	$174	49
21218 W 56th St	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,032 (-14%)	1mo	$450,000	$221	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-78,402
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-80,565
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66226

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,410 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$438 /mo · $5,252/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,599

Max offer price $398,572

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $-29	+0% $-150	+5% $-270	+10% $-390
Rent	-10% $-419	-5% $-284	+0% $-150	+5% $-15	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $-42	base $-150	+0.5pp $-260	+1.0pp $-372

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5836 Noreston St Shawnee, KS	4.0	3.5	2208	$3,171	$1.44	22d	1	0.94mi
5701 Woodland Dr Shawnee, KS	3.0	2.0	2176	$2,995	$1.38	25d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   historical $425,000
3. 2005-03-30
   soldstatus
4. 2005-03-24
   soldstatus 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   Gorgeous 2 story home in Shawnee's Brittany Heights. 4 BR, 2.5 BA located on oversized lot in cul-de-sac. HOA includes trash & pool. Yard is fenced & has an inground sprinkler system. Full walkout bsmt ready to be finished! New water heater 8/04. Laundry rm on BR level. Community Pool incl in HOA.

5. 2005-01-17
   listed $204,950 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   Gorgeous 2 story home in Shawnee's Brittany Heights. 4 BR, 2.5 BA located on oversized lot in cul-de-sac. HOA includes trash & pool. Yard is fenced & has an inground sprinkler system. Full walkout bsmt ready to be finished! New water heater 8/04. Laundry rm on BR level. Community Pool incl in HOA.

6. 1998-06-16
   soldstatus 234-char remark

   Show marketing remark (234 chars)

   Very Spacious Home. Bookcases Grace The Fireplace. Larg Deck And Plenty Of Extras In This Home. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Taxes Are Estimated. .. .. .. .. .. .. Johnson Dr To Monticello Rd. (Approx 3 Mi West Of 435); North To 51st Place

7. 1998-05-17
   listed $164,059 234-char remark

   Show marketing remark (234 chars)

   Very Spacious Home. Bookcases Grace The Fireplace. Larg Deck And Plenty Of Extras In This Home. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Taxes Are Estimated. .. .. .. .. .. .. Johnson Dr To Monticello Rd. (Approx 3 Mi West Of 435); North To 51st Place

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,252 · $438/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,992 · $499/mo
• Expected delta: +$741/yr (+$62/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$5,252
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,274
• − Management: −$3,274
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$9,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,202
• After-tax cash flow: $407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: De Soto
• NCES district ID: 2005490
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $96,361
• Composite: 48.04/100
• National rank: #2192
• State rank: #3 of 169 in KS

Livability — Shawnee

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #276

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shawnee, KS
• County: Johnson County · 574,662 people
• City population: 60,541
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 16,219
• Household income: $173,667
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 85.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 663,396 people
• By 2030: 702,585 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 775,386 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 841,772 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 994,137 · +49.9%
• By 2100: 1,073,036 · +61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.5) · D 53.4% · R 44.9% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.5pp toward D · 2008: -9.0pp · 2024: 8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.5 2020: D+8.2 2016: R+2.7 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+9.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.26%
• Current HPI: 219.7056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+159.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Coming Soon $425,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-24 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-17 Listed $204,950 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-06-16 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-05-17 Listed $164,059 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,252 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.