26 Long Beach Dr

Sound Beach, NY 11789

$479,990C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · Built 1930 · Other · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,839/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$806
• Net cashflow: $150/mo
• Annual: $1,797/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $134,397

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $480k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $384k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($473k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $384k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#458 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Miller Place Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #116 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sound Beach School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 473 students, 15% FRL); North Country Road School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 534 students, 15% FRL); Miller Place High School (math 96% / reading 72%, grade A, #404 of 1,100 statewide, top 37%, 820 students, 16% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $480k implies a 329% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in Sound Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.