7529 Valley Circle Ln

North Boston, NY 14075

$199,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-198/mo
• Annual: $-2,376/yr
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.25%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (28.5% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $143k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#988 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hamburg Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #267 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Boston Valley Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 231 students, 26% FRL); Hamburg Middle School (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D+, #315 of 729 statewide, top 45%, 755 students, 24% FRL); Hamburg High School (math 94% / reading 97%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 987 students, 19% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $200k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.0% in North Boston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.