7529 Valley Circle Ln · North Boston, NY 14075

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1954 0.36 ac lot Est $270k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Warm, inviting 2 bedroom ranch with a full bath on the main level and a half bath in the basement. Absolutely perfect for first time buyers or downsizing, easy to call it your home. Meticulously & professionally maintained gardens and landscaping are a pleasure to own. Covered breezeway attaches home to garage. Full basement with shop area and separate heat for rec room and gaming.

Key facts

• Great deck
• Park like yard
• Pond

Tags

• GAS INSERT FIREPLACE
• GREAT DECK
• RETRACTABLE AWNING
• PARK LIKE YARD
• POND
• WATERFALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.0% in North Boston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#988 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hamburg Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #267 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Boston Valley Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 231 students, 26% FRL); Hamburg Middle School (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D+, #315 of 729 statewide, top 45%, 755 students, 24% FRL); Hamburg High School (math 94% / reading 97%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 987 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $200k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $143,019 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.25%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7529 Valley Circle Ln	0.00mi	3/1.5 (+1)	900 (0%)	1mo	$270,000	$300	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-41,766
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-38,701
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14075

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,355/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,681

Max offer price $164,917

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-85	-5% $-141	+0% $-198	+5% $-255	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-311	-5% $-255	+0% $-198	+5% $-142	+10% $-85
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-147	base $-198	+0.5pp $-250	+1.0pp $-303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2016-03-10
   soldstatus $119,900 Closed Sale or Rented 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Warm, inviting 2 bedroom ranch with a full bath on the main level and a half bath in the basement. Absolutely perfect for first time buyers or downsizing, easy to call it your home. Meticulously & professionally maintained gardens and landscaping are a pleasure to own. Covered breezeway attaches home to garage. Full basement with shop area and separate heat for rec room and gaming.

4. 2016-02-25
   soldstatus $119,900
5. 2015-11-13
   status Pending Sale 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Warm, inviting 2 bedroom ranch with a full bath on the main level and a half bath in the basement. Absolutely perfect for first time buyers or downsizing, easy to call it your home. Meticulously & professionally maintained gardens and landscaping are a pleasure to own. Covered breezeway attaches home to garage. Full basement with shop area and separate heat for rec room and gaming.

6. 2015-11-09
   price $119,900 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Warm, inviting 2 bedroom ranch with a full bath on the main level and a half bath in the basement. Absolutely perfect for first time buyers or downsizing, easy to call it your home. Meticulously & professionally maintained gardens and landscaping are a pleasure to own. Covered breezeway attaches home to garage. Full basement with shop area and separate heat for rec room and gaming.

7. 2015-11-09
   price $115,000 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Warm, inviting 2 bedroom ranch with a full bath on the main level and a half bath in the basement. Absolutely perfect for first time buyers or downsizing, easy to call it your home. Meticulously & professionally maintained gardens and landscaping are a pleasure to own. Covered breezeway attaches home to garage. Full basement with shop area and separate heat for rec room and gaming.

8. 2015-10-15
   listed $119,900 Active 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Warm, inviting 2 bedroom ranch with a full bath on the main level and a half bath in the basement. Absolutely perfect for first time buyers or downsizing, easy to call it your home. Meticulously & professionally maintained gardens and landscaping are a pleasure to own. Covered breezeway attaches home to garage. Full basement with shop area and separate heat for rec room and gaming.

9. 2003-09-03
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,355 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,867 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$511/yr (+$43/mo · 21.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,355
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,428
• After-tax cash flow: $-948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613350
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $68,342
• Composite: 49.43/100
• National rank: #2006
• State rank: #267 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Boston

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #988
• US rank: #19330

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Boston, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,520
• Household income: $83,383
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.10%
• Current HPI: 300.2852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+166.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-03-10 Sold (MLS) $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 2015-11-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2015-11-09 Price Changed $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-11-09 Price Changed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-10-15 Listed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2003-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,355 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.