32 Back Holw

Goshen, VA 24450

$99,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,414/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $460/mo
• Annual: $5,523/yr
• Cap rate: 12.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.33%
• DSCR: 1.99
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#491 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Rockbridge County Public School District (town): math 43% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #80 of 131 in VA (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 452 students, 70% FRL); Maury River Middle (math 38% / reading 63%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 502 students, 70% FRL); Rockbridge County High (math 52% / reading 82%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 994 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 37% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 85 units permitted in Rockbridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockbridge County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.