32 Back Holw · Goshen, VA 24450

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1955 2.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the peace of the countryside with this home full of potential. Tucked away is a rural setting, this property is a great opportunity for investors, or a buyer looking to create their own retreat with some TLC. The home is being sold "As is Where is".

Key facts

• 2.01 acre lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; Fiber optic available
• Home design: Detached single-story home; Entry level on one floor
• Construction: Stick-built construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Approximately 2.01 acres lot; Fiber optic available

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil)
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the main level; Full unfinished walk-out basement with exterior entry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#491 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Rockbridge County Public School District (town): math 43% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #80 of 131 in VA (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 452 students, 70% FRL); Maury River Middle (math 38% / reading 63%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 502 students, 70% FRL); Rockbridge County High (math 52% / reading 82%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 994 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 37% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 85 units permitted in Rockbridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockbridge County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.33%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $13,278
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $49,329
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24450

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,414 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $492/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $832

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 259-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$320/yr (+$27/mo · 64.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$492
• − Insurance: −$1,162
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,358
• − Management: −$1,358
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $4,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,002
• After-tax cash flow: $4,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockbridge County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103370
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -41.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,021
• Composite: 46.65/100
• National rank: #2408
• State rank: #80 of 131 in VA

Livability — Goshen

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #21651

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockbridge County · 17,714 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 17,714
• Household income: $76,587
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 429.0

Population outlook (Rockbridge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,549 people
• By 2030: 22,381 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 21,488 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 20,054 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 16,228 · -28.0%
• By 2100: 11,598 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockbridge

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+32.4 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.84%
• Current HPI: 283.7394
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $99,000 GAAR

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $492 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.