3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
840 sqft ·
Built 1995
· Manufactured
· Active
· 85 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$880/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$142
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$185
Net cashflow
$108/mo
Annual
$1,296/yr
Cap rate
7.82%
Cash-on-cash
5.45%
DSCR
1.24
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($880 rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,161 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 569 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 0.2% in Kingsland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Foundation
— Uneven and in need of repair
Major: Roof
— Appears in need of maintenance
Major: Windows
— Old and possibly in need of replacement
Major: Exterior
— RV trailer parked in front, debris and trash visible
Major: Exterior
— Fence in poor condition, debris and trash visible
Major: Exterior
— Landscaping and curb appeal are lacking
CashFlowRE · CFR-BEQ3M7A0RZNZBT
· Data 6 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29