207 S Hickory St

Roscoe, TX 79545

$40,000B+

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 214 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$493
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $64/mo
• Annual: $771/yr
• Cap rate: 21.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.58%
• DSCR: 3.34
• 1% rule: 2.43%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($771/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($971 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#172 in TX, #4,537 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Roscoe Collegiate ISD (rural): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #721 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Roscoe El (math 11% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 203 students, 58% FRL, charter); Roscoe Collegiate H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 315 students, 42% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Nolan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nolan County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (52%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (8.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.