207 S Hickory St · Roscoe, TX 79545

$40,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 214 Days on market

Built 1965 10,498 sqft lot ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

This delightful 1-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,260 square feet of cozy living space in a peaceful small-town setting. Featuring both a comfortable living room and a spacious family room, there's plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy the convenience of a carport to keep your vehicle protected from the elements. With its unique charm and inviting atmosphere, this home is perfect for anyone looking to enjoy quiet country living. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($771/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($971 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#172 in TX, #4,537 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Roscoe Collegiate ISD (rural): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #721 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Roscoe El (math 11% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 203 students, 58% FRL, charter); Roscoe Collegiate H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 315 students, 42% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Nolan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Nolan County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (8.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (52%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.58%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $21,917
• Equity at exit: $31,527

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.46×
• Total profit: $61,180
• Equity at exit: $63,699

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79545

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $890

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $78	+0% $64	+5% $50	+10% $37
Rent	-10% $-12	-5% $26	+0% $64	+5% $103	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $74	base $64	+0.5pp $54	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-05
   status Active
3. 2025-12-26
   historical
4. 2025-11-24
   price $40,000
5. 2025-09-25
   price $65,000
6. 2025-09-25
   price $50,000
7. 2025-07-01
   listed $82,500 Active
8. 1988-03-17
   soldstatus
9. 1988-03-04
   soldstatus
10. 1988-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$5,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$932
• − Management: −$932
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$112
• After-tax cash flow: $659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roscoe Collegiate ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $48,093
• Composite: 21.0/100
• National rank: #8460
• State rank: #721 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roscoe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #4537

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roscoe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,778

Population outlook (Nolan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,048 people
• By 2030: 15,043 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 15,235 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 15,603 · +3.7%
• By 2075: 16,528 · +9.8%
• By 2100: 16,427 · +9.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Nolan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.2) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.4pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -59.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.2 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+53.2 2012: R+45.1 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.42%
• Current HPI: 169.199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-51.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-01-05 Relisted — PBBOR
• 2025-12-26 Delisted — PBBOR
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $40,000 PBBOR
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $65,000 PBBOR
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $50,000 PBBOR
• 2025-07-01 Listed $82,500 PBBOR
• 1988-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,829 · +83.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.