23746 Old Day Creek Road Rd Unit A & B

Clear Lake, WA 98284

$475,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · Built 1910 · MultiFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,955/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$1,252
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$831
• Net cashflow: $-619/mo
• Annual: $-7,423/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $475k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-619 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (16.7% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $385k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#403 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Sedro-Woolley School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #117 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clear Lake Elementary School (298 students, 44% FRL); Cascade Middle School (697 students, 58% FRL); Sedro Woolley Senior High School (1,276 students, 49% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.6% in Clear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,955/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 502% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate: kitchen appliances — outdated and in need of replacement