29551 Springwood Ct

Bear Valley Springs, CA 93561

$329,400D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,880 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,352/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,727
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-240/mo
• Annual: $-2,883/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $92,232

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#942 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tehachapi Unified (town): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #285 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 654 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $274k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.8% in Bear Valley Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.