29551 Springwood Ct · Bear Valley Springs, CA 93561

$329,400

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1976 3.99 ac lot $175/sqft · 9% below area Est $444k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on 3.99 pristine acres, this stunning gambrel-style mountain retreat offers the perfect blend of rustic charm and modern comfort. Surrounded by breathtaking mountain views, this serene escape is an idyllic haven for nature lovers and those seeking tranquility. The thoughtfully designed home features two spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing ample space for relaxation. A versatile office or artist studio, currently set up as a third bedroom, offers endless possibilities for creativity or additional guest space. Downstairs, the finished basement is a standout featureperfect as a man cave, teen suite, or entertainment hub. With its classic gambrel architecture, expansive acreage, and panoramic vistas, this mountain retreat is a rare gem ready to be your forever home or weekend getaway.

Key facts

• Gambrel style
• Expansive acreage
• Finished basement

Tags

• GAMBREL STYLE
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• ARTIST STUDIO
• SPACIOUS BEDROOMS
• EXPANSIVE ACREAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.8% in Bear Valley Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#942 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tehachapi Unified (town): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #285 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 654 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $274k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,205 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $443,672
• List price: $329,400
• Delta: -25.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30081 Starland Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,802 (-4%)	3mo	$540,000	$300	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-75,535
• Equity at exit: $49,115

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-112,013
• Equity at exit: $28,480

Cash invested: $92,232 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93561

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,727
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,805/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,656

Max offer price $286,955

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,350
• Closing costs: $9,882
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26120 Deertrail Dr Tehachapi, CA	3.0	2.0	1784	$2,495	$1.40	19d	1	0.34mi
26511 Teal Ct Tehachapi, CA	3.0	3.0	2310	$3,500	$1.52	2d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,400 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,400 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,400 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,400 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,400 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,400 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,400 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,400 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,400 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,400 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,400 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,400 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,400 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    price $329,400 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    Nestled on 3.99 pristine acres, this stunning gambrel-style mountain retreat offers the perfect blend of rustic charm and modern comfort. Surrounded by breathtaking mountain views, this serene escape is an idyllic haven for nature lovers and those seeking tranquility. The thoughtfully designed home features two spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing ample space for relaxation. A versatile office or artist studio, currently set up as a third bedroom, offers endless possibilities for creativity or additional guest space. Downstairs, the finished basement is a standout featureperfect as a man cave, teen suite, or entertainment hub. With its classic gambrel architecture, expansive acreage, and panoramic vistas, this mountain retreat is a rare gem ready to be your forever home or weekend getaway.

15. 2026-03-06
    price $329,400 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    Nestled on 3.99 pristine acres, this stunning gambrel-style mountain retreat offers the perfect blend of rustic charm and modern comfort. Surrounded by breathtaking mountain views, this serene escape is an idyllic haven for nature lovers and those seeking tranquility. The thoughtfully designed home features two spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing ample space for relaxation. A versatile office or artist studio, currently set up as a third bedroom, offers endless possibilities for creativity or additional guest space. Downstairs, the finished basement is a standout featureperfect as a man cave, teen suite, or entertainment hub. With its classic gambrel architecture, expansive acreage, and panoramic vistas, this mountain retreat is a rare gem ready to be your forever home or weekend getaway.

16. 2026-01-05
    listed $364,800 Active 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    Nestled on 3.99 pristine acres, this stunning gambrel-style mountain retreat offers the perfect blend of rustic charm and modern comfort. Surrounded by breathtaking mountain views, this serene escape is an idyllic haven for nature lovers and those seeking tranquility. The thoughtfully designed home features two spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing ample space for relaxation. A versatile office or artist studio, currently set up as a third bedroom, offers endless possibilities for creativity or additional guest space. Downstairs, the finished basement is a standout featureperfect as a man cave, teen suite, or entertainment hub. With its classic gambrel architecture, expansive acreage, and panoramic vistas, this mountain retreat is a rare gem ready to be your forever home or weekend getaway.

17. 2026-01-05
    listed $364,800 Active 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    Nestled on 3.99 pristine acres, this stunning gambrel-style mountain retreat offers the perfect blend of rustic charm and modern comfort. Surrounded by breathtaking mountain views, this serene escape is an idyllic haven for nature lovers and those seeking tranquility. The thoughtfully designed home features two spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing ample space for relaxation. A versatile office or artist studio, currently set up as a third bedroom, offers endless possibilities for creativity or additional guest space. Downstairs, the finished basement is a standout featureperfect as a man cave, teen suite, or entertainment hub. With its classic gambrel architecture, expansive acreage, and panoramic vistas, this mountain retreat is a rare gem ready to be your forever home or weekend getaway.

18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-10-11
    listed $364,800 Active
20. 2025-09-19
    listed $364,800 Active
21. 2025-09-11
    price $364,800
22. 2025-07-19
    price $364,800
23. 2025-05-02
    price $379,000
24. 2025-03-06
    listed $399,000 Active
25. 2025-03-03
    listed $399,000 Active
26. 2025-01-17
    price $340,900
27. 2025-01-14
    price $374,900
28. 2025-01-10
    price $379,900
29. 2024-12-10
    listed $399,900 Active
30. 2004-09-03
    soldstatus $273,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,452
• − Property taxes: −$2,805
• − Insurance: −$1,647
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,258
• − Management: −$2,258
• − Depreciation: −$9,583
• Taxable loss: −$8,777
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,107
• After-tax cash flow: $-777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tehachapi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638880
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,230
• Composite: 29.52/100
• National rank: #6497
• State rank: #285 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bear Valley Springs

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #942
• US rank: #24344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bear Valley Springs, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,175
• Household income: $87,357
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 568.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.70%
• Current HPI: 371.6546
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+20.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $329,400 GEMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $329,400 TAAR
• 2026-01-05 Listed $364,800 GEMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $364,800 TAAR
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-11 Listed $364,800 TAAR
• 2025-09-19 Listed $364,800 GEMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $364,800 CRMLS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $364,800 TAAR
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $379,000 TAAR
• 2025-03-06 Listed $399,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-03 Listed $399,000 TAAR
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $340,900 GEMLS
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $374,900 GEMLS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $379,900 GEMLS
• 2024-12-10 Listed $399,900 GEMLS
• 2004-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $273,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,805 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.