5290 Hidden Pines Cir

East Milton, FL 32583

$325,307D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,930 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 196 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,454/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,734
• Tax + insurance: −$551
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-375/mo
• Annual: $-4,505/yr
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.87%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $92,581

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-375 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (24.6% below list).
• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $245k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in FL, #3,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Martin Luther King Middle School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 660 students, 69% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 1220 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.