Is 5290 Hidden Pines Cir in East Milton, FL a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 4.9% cap rate and $-375/mo modeled cash flow at a $325,307 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 5290 Hidden Pines Cir?

The modeled cap rate is 4.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,454/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 35.23

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +7.7/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +4.2/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.9/5.0
Rent growth +3.6/5.0
1% rule +2.4/10.0
DSCR +1.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$325,307

5290 Hidden Pines Cir · East Milton, FL 32583

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,930 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 196 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,751 sqft lot 2-car garage $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Spacious 4-Bedroom Home with Modern Finishes & Ideal Layout – Just 30 Minutes from the Beach!This beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,820 sq ft of open-concept living, perfect for both everyday comfort and entertaining. The heart of the home features a spacious kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a breakfast bar, and seamless flow into the vaulted living area for a bright and airy feel. The split-bedroom floorplan provides privacy and flexibility, with a generously sized master suite that includes a double bowl vanity and a large 5-foot walk-in tiled shower.

Key facts

Spacious kitchen
Vaulted living area
Granite countertops

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-375 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (15.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (24.6% below list).
Recommended offer: $245k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in FL, #3,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Martin Luther King Middle School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 660 students, 69% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 1220 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $245,392 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.74% ✗
Cap rate: 4.93%
Cash-on-cash: -4.87%
DSCR: 0.78
GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $330,646
List price: $325,307
Delta: -1.61%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5207 Zenith Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (-2%)	2mo	$338,986	$178	88
5334 Hidden Pines Cir	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (-2%)	0mo	$342,553	$180	87
5318 Hidden Pines Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (-2%)	3mo	$343,000	$180	87
7748 Rustling Pines Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,968 (+2%)	0mo	$345,000	$175	85
5338 Azimuth Way Lot 10G	0.20mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-2%)	2mo	$305,990	$162	84
5387 Hidden Pines Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (-2%)	3mo	$326,303	$172	82
5344 Horizons Edge Ln Unit HS 27A	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-12%)	0mo	$282,990	$166	67
5350 Azimuth Way Unit HS 13G	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-14%)	0mo	$273,990	$164	67
7751 Sea Level Dr Lot 16G	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-12%)	3mo	$283,990	$166	67
5341 Horizons Edge Ln Lot 5G	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-12%)	5mo	$292,509	$171	65
7747 Sea Level Dr Lot 15G	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-14%)	3mo	$279,990	$168	64
5348 Horizons Edge Ln Unit HS 26A	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-14%)	1mo	$282,490	$169	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -22.8%
Equity multiple: 0.21×
Total profit: $-73,599
Equity at exit: $49,300

10-year hold

IRR: -13.7%
Equity multiple: 0.15×
Total profit: $-78,418
Equity at exit: $28,588

Cash invested: $92,581 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 52 active · 48 under contract
Months of supply: 10.1 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $302,740 ($178/sqft)
Median days on market: 40 d
This list price: 77% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -3.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32583

Home prices YoY: -11.3%
Rents YoY: 4.5%
Active inventory: 1220
Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,454 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,734
Tax est. 1.5%: −$413 /mo · $4,960/yr
Insurance: −$138
HOA: −$29
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
Net cashflow: $-375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,929

Max offer price $276,323

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-261	+0% $-375	+5% $-490	+10% $-604
Rent	-10% $-569	-5% $-472	+0% $-375	+5% $-278	+10% $-182
Rate	-1.0pp $-209	-0.5pp $-291	base $-375	+0.5pp $-461	+1.0pp $-548

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $82,661
Closing costs: $9,919
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8057 Fir Tree Dr Milton, FL	5.0	3.0	2107	$2,400	$1.14	164d	1	1.02mi
8016 Twin Ceder Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	2360	$2,220	$0.94	10d	1	1.17mi
8076 Majestic Cypress Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,195	$1.20	10d	1	1.17mi
8076 Majestic Cypress Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,195	$1.20	31d	1	1.17mi
7640 Piper Cir Milton, FL	5.0	3.0	2614	$2,495	$0.95	10d	1	1.38mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Property sits on approximately 0.155 acresCounty-maintained road accessGreen energy-efficient features include insulation, energy-efficient lighting, and energy-efficient appliancesTotal building area approximately 1,820 square feet
HOA & community: Community has an associationAnnual association fee of $350 (covers association services)

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garageTwo covered parking spaces (total 2 spaces)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric with circuit breakers
Home design: Single-story homeOne-level entryUnder construction / new constructionDetached (not attached to another property)Frame construction
Construction: Built on slab foundationShingle roof
Exterior features: Covered porchCovered patioSprinkler systemCentral access to the lot

Interior

Kitchen: PantryBuilt-in microwaveDishwasherDisposalElectric water heater
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 16.3' x 13')Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10.5' x 12.5')Third bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10.1' x 12.3')
Flooring: Carpet
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fansENERGY STAR qualified equipment
Interior features: BaseboardsCeiling fansVaulted ceilings
Laundry & utility: Electric service with circuit breakers

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $325,307 Active 196 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $325,307 Active 195 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $325,307 Active 194 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $325,307 Active 193 DOM
2026-11-04

pricedays on market $325,307 Active 192 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $335,307 Active 190 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $335,307 Active 189 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $335,307 Active 188 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $335,307 Active 187 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $335,307 Active 186 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $335,307 Active 185 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $335,307 Active 184 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $335,307 Active 183 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $335,307 Active 182 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $335,307 Active 181 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $335,307 Active 180 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $335,307 Active 179 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $335,307 Active 178 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $335,307 Active 177 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $335,307 Active 176 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $335,307 Active 175 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $335,307 Active 174 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $335,307 Active 173 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $335,307 Active 172 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $335,307 Active 171 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $335,307 Active 170 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $335,307 Active 169 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $335,307 Active 168 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $335,307 Active 167 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $335,307 Active 166 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $335,307 Active 165 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $335,307 Active 164 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $335,307 Active 163 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $335,307 Active 162 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $335,307 Active 161 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $335,307 Active 160 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $335,307 Active 159 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $335,307 Active 158 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $335,307 Active 157 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $335,307 Active 156 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $335,307 Active 155 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $335,307 Active 154 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $335,307 Active 152 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $335,307 Active 151 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $335,307 Active 150 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $335,307 Active 149 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $335,307 Active 148 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $335,307 Active 147 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $335,307 Active 146 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $335,307 Active 145 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,447
− Mortgage interest: −$18,521
− Property taxes: −$4,960
− Insurance: −$1,653
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,356
− Management: −$2,356
− HOA: −$348
− Depreciation: −$9,619
Taxable loss: −$10,365

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,488
After-tax cash flow: $-2,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a spacious layout. It's move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Replace light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and interior ambiance ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary East Milton Elementary School D- FL #1,271/2,144 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Martin Luther King Middle School F FL #373/571 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Milton High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Santa Rosa
NCES district ID: 1201650
Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $58,161
Composite: 53.12/100
National rank: #1511
State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — East Milton

Score: 77/100
State rank: #199
US rank: #3139

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: East Milton, FL
County: Santa Rosa County · 195,978 people
City population: 31,415
Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
Population (ZIP): 31,828
Household income: $85,440
Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 195,978 people
By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
Current HPI: 301.8819
Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Industrial Technology	2	$29B
#159 Carrier Global Palm Beach Gardens $22.2B #376 Roper Technologies Sarasota $6.8B
Insurance	2	$17B
#348 Fidelity National Financial Jacksonville $12.1B #494 Brown & Brown Daytona Beach $4.6B
Retail	1	$60B
#71 Publix Super Markets Lakeland $60.2B
Technology Distribution	1	$58B
#73 TD Synnex Clearwater $58.5B
Homebuilding	1	$35B
#185 Lennar Miami $35.4B
Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B
#122 Jabil St. Petersburg $34.7B

Price history

+2.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-06-19 Price Changed $335,307 PARMLS
2026-05-12 Price Changed $331,307 PARMLS
2026-04-26 Listed $327,307 PARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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