820 Holly Dr

La Plata, MD 20646

$315,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,755 sqft · Built 1980 · Townhouse · Coming Soon · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,654/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$478
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-33/mo
• Annual: $-399/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-399/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (15.7% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $265k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#132 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: La Plata High School (math 51% / reading 74%, grade B-, #62 of 222 statewide, top 29%, 1,222 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 21% district-wide (+42 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Charles County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 58% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $176k; list at $315k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in La Plata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.