8536 Kern Canyon Rd #16

East Niles, CA 93306

$115,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 128 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,676/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $588/mo
• Annual: $7,053/yr
• Cap rate: 12.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.90%
• DSCR: 1.97
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $588 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Douglas K. Fletcher Elementary (770 students, 59% FRL); Paul L. Cato Middle (629 students, 57% FRL); Foothill High (reading 77%, 2,045 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.