8536 Kern Canyon Rd #16 · East Niles, CA 93306

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1985 0.31 ac lot $86/sqft · 10% above area Est $104k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming and spacious 1,344 sq ft manufactured home offering 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms designed for comfortable living. The open-concept living room creates a bright and inviting atmosphere, seamlessly connecting the main living areas- perfect for entertaining. The updated kitchen features beautiful granite countertops with ample counter space as well as sleek white cabinetry, while the bathrooms showcase sleek white cabinetry and matching countertops for a clean, uniform look. Both bedrooms are generously sized for comfort. Enjoy year-round comfort with a newer AC system already installed. Step outside to a large, private backyard perfect for family gatherings, weekend BBQs, or simply relaxing in your own outdoor retreat. Residents also enjoy access to wonderful community amenities including a swimming pool, spa, clubhouse, fitness center, and RV parking. This home combines space, style, and lifestyle convenience. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Community amenities
• Swimming pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $588 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.90%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,197
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 10.37%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #44	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$63,000	$47	95
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #100	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$105,000	$78	93
8500 Kern Canyon Rd #139	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$74,000	$55	89
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #73	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$105,000	$73	86
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #186	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$129,900	$90	85
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #150	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$93,000	$69	85
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #136	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,430 (+6%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	83
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #146	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	8mo	$85,000	$68	82
9305 Eastwind Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$250,000	$186	78
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #93	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$68,000	$54	78
9108 Eastwind Cir	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	7mo	$245,000	$175	72
8904 Eastwind Cir	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	6mo	$285,000	$228	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $17,514
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $58,267
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,021/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $932

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $653	-5% $620	+0% $588	+5% $555	+10% $523
Rent	-10% $455	-5% $522	+0% $588	+5% $654	+10% $720
Rate	-1.0pp $646	-0.5pp $617	base $588	+0.5pp $558	+1.0pp $528

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Fortier St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	4d	1	0.39mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,005	$1.14	4d	1	0.98mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,067	$1.01	45d	1	0.98mi
7000 College Ave Apt 168 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	957	$1,655	$1.73	20d	1	1.00mi
8817 Butternut Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	4d	1	1.16mi
9802 Krista Vineyard Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	4d	1	1.17mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Unit 152 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,610	$1.55	4d	1	1.40mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Apt 127 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$1,535	$1.57	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    price $117,000 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Welcome to this charming and spacious 1,344 sq ft manufactured home offering 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms designed for comfortable living. The open-concept living room creates a bright and inviting atmosphere, seamlessly connecting the main living areas- perfect for entertaining. The updated kitchen features beautiful granite countertops with ample counter space as well as sleek white cabinetry, while the bathrooms showcase sleek white cabinetry and matching countertops for a clean, uniform look. Both bedrooms are generously sized for comfort. Enjoy year-round comfort with a newer AC system already installed. Step outside to a large, private backyard perfect for family gatherings, weekend BBQs, or simply relaxing in your own outdoor retreat. Residents also enjoy access to wonderful community amenities including a swimming pool, spa, clubhouse, fitness center, and RV parking. This home combines space, style, and lifestyle convenience. Schedule your private showing today!

16. 2026-02-12
    listed $120,000 Active 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Welcome to this charming and spacious 1,344 sq ft manufactured home offering 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms designed for comfortable living. The open-concept living room creates a bright and inviting atmosphere, seamlessly connecting the main living areas- perfect for entertaining. The updated kitchen features beautiful granite countertops with ample counter space as well as sleek white cabinetry, while the bathrooms showcase sleek white cabinetry and matching countertops for a clean, uniform look. Both bedrooms are generously sized for comfort. Enjoy year-round comfort with a newer AC system already installed. Step outside to a large, private backyard perfect for family gatherings, weekend BBQs, or simply relaxing in your own outdoor retreat. Residents also enjoy access to wonderful community amenities including a swimming pool, spa, clubhouse, fitness center, and RV parking. This home combines space, style, and lifestyle convenience. Schedule your private showing today!

17. 2025-04-10
    price $122,000
18. 2025-02-26
    listed $125,000 Active
19. 2023-02-18
    status Pending
20. 2023-02-17
    soldstatus $95,000 Sold
21. 2023-02-17
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed Sale
22. 2023-01-20
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2023-01-19
    historical Active - Contingent
24. 2022-12-05
    listed $95,000 Active
25. 2022-11-29
    listed $95,000 Active
26. 2021-04-16
    soldstatus $89,900 Sold
27. 2021-03-30
    status Pending
28. 2021-03-24
    listed $89,900 Active
29. 1999-07-08
    soldstatus $24,000
30. 1999-06-07
    price $26,000
31. 1999-06-07
    historical
32. 1998-09-15
    listed $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,021
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $5,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $5,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+387.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $117,000 GEMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $120,000 GEMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $122,000 GEMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $125,000 GEMLS
• 2023-02-18 Pending — GEMLS
• 2023-02-17 Sold (MLS) $95,000 CRMLS
• 2023-02-17 Sold (MLS) $95,000 GEMLS
• 2023-01-20 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-01-19 Contingent — GEMLS
• 2022-12-05 Listed $95,000 CRMLS
• 2022-11-29 Listed $95,000 GEMLS
• 2021-04-16 Sold (MLS) $89,900 GEMLS
• 2021-03-30 Pending — GEMLS
• 2021-03-24 Listed $89,900 GEMLS
• 1999-07-08 Sold (MLS) $24,000 GEMLS
• 1999-06-07 Delisted — GEMLS
• 1999-06-07 Price Changed $26,000 GEMLS
• 1998-09-15 Listed $24,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,021 · +24.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.