16 Woodgrain Dr

Billings, MT 59102

$34,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,617/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax + insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$955
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $88/mo
• Annual: $1,051/yr
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.04%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 4.76%
• Cash to close: $9,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $34k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $34k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $33k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $235 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#10 in MT, #1,830 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Billings H S (urban): math 29% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #69 of 116 in MT (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Miles Avenue School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #223 of 293 statewide, top 79%, 252 students, 0% FRL); Riverside Middle School (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #117 of 146 statewide, top 80%, 492 students, 0% FRL); Billings West High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #35 of 132 statewide, top 27%, 2,269 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 59% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.0% in Billings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Moderate: flooring — dated and worn
• Moderate: interior walls — dated and worn
• Minor: landscaping — bare yard, no landscaping