16 Woodgrain Dr · Billings, MT 59102

$34,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Built 1982 Fair condition $955/mo HOA · 59% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Single level living
• Paved access

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• LEVEL INTERIOR LOT
• PAVED ACCESS
• CENTRAL A C
• SINGLE LEVEL LIVING
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Golden subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $955

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family manufactured home; One level
• Construction: 1,216 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Oven; Range; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $34k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.0% in Billings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#10 in MT, #1,830 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Billings H S (urban): math 29% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #69 of 116 in MT (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Miles Avenue School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #223 of 293 statewide, top 79%, 252 students, 0% FRL); Riverside Middle School (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #117 of 146 statewide, top 80%, 492 students, 0% FRL); Billings West High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #35 of 132 statewide, top 27%, 2,269 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $235 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 59% of rent.

Recommended offer $32,980 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.04%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $70,528
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Brookpark Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,226 (+1%)	7mo	$40,000	$33	86
8 Redrock Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	10mo	$89,900	$74	84
16 Bridlewood Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	9mo	$30,000	$25	82
13 Willow Bend Dr N	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	21mo	$79,900	$66	81
6 Northglen Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	3mo	$89,500	$74	80
31 Wheatland Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	21mo	$77,700	$64	79
12 Woodgrain Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-1%)	23mo	$32,000	$27	79
36 Chestnut Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-1%)	2mo	$55,000	$46	78
31 W Meadow Drive Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+4%)	10mo	$47,500	$38	75
14 Walnut Grove Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	20mo	$125,000	$101	67
44 Bridlewood Dr Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (0%)	20mo	$70,000	$58	62
7 Wild Oak Drive Dr	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	21mo	$49,995	$47	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $4,052
• Equity at exit: $5,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $27,613
• Equity at exit: $2,940

Cash invested: $9,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59102

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$42 /mo · $510/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$955
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,506

Max offer price $34,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $99	+0% $88	+5% $76	+10% $64
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $24	+0% $88	+5% $152	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $96	base $88	+0.5pp $79	+1.0pp $70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,500
• Closing costs: $1,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3290 Granger Ave E Billings, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0	686	$1,225	$1.79	15d	5	0.36mi
371 Cape Cod Dr Billings, MT	2.0	1.5	1175	$1,495	$1.27	23d	1	0.76mi
353 Cape Cod Dr Unit 3 Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,295	$1.23	15d	1	0.78mi
3900 Olympic Blvd Billings, MT	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,695	$1.76	15d	5	0.85mi
3900 Victory Cir Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	966	$1,360	$1.41	15d	21	1.01mi
2604 Phyllis Ln Billings, MT	2.0–3.0	1.0	792	$1,575	$1.99	15d	2	1.13mi
218 Brookshire Blvd Billings, MT	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,445	$1.28	23d	1	1.17mi
3040 Central Ave Billings, MT	3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,867	$2.10	15d	25	1.19mi
501 S 44th St W Billings, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,250	$2.20	15d	7	1.43mi
611 S 44th St W Billings, MT	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,150	$1.57	15d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $955 · $11,460/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $34,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $34,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $34,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $34,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $34,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $34,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $39,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,000 Active 18 DOM
19. 2026-05-12
    listed $49,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,905
• − Property taxes: −$510
• − Insurance: −$170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − HOA: −$11,460
• − Depreciation: −$989
• Taxable income: $1,268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$304
• After-tax cash flow: $747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen, bathroom, flooring, and exterior. Landscaping and painting the exterior would also improve curb appeal and add value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Moderate flooring — dated and worn
• Moderate interior walls — dated and worn
• Minor landscaping — bare yard, no landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modern cabinets improve aesthetics
• Resale update flooring — new flooring enhances curb appeal
• Resale paint exterior siding — fresh paint improves curb appeal
• Both landscaping — landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
flooring · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
interior walls · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
landscaping · bare yard, no landscaping	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$12,500–63,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modern cabinets improve aesthetics ↑
• Resale update flooring — new flooring enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale paint exterior siding — fresh paint improves curb appeal ↑
• Both landscaping — landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Billings H S
• NCES district ID: 3003900
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,863
• Composite: 31.93/100
• National rank: #5848
• State rank: #69 of 116 in MT

Livability — Billings

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1830

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Billings, MT
• County: Yellowstone County · 159,426 people
• City population: 147,124
• Metro: Billings, MT
• Population (ZIP): 47,977
• Household income: $76,141
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1584.0

Population outlook (Yellowstone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,227 people
• By 2030: 185,619 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 203,543 · +15.5%
• By 2050: 221,100 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 266,931 · +51.5%
• By 2100: 301,141 · +70.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yellowstone

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 34.9% · R 62.0% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -364.20%
• Current HPI: 205.0915
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Billings, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $49,000 BMTMLS