588 Sugar Valley Trl SE

Conyers, GA 30094

$285,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,622 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,984/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$470
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-397/mo
• Annual: $-4,761/yr
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (30.4% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#167 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, commute F.
• Rockdale County (suburban): math 14% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #136 of 174 in GA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Barksdale Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 489 students, 70% FRL); General Ray Davis Middle School (math 23% / reading 49%, grade F, #178 of 470 statewide, top 39%, 978 students, 62% FRL); Heritage High School (math 8% / reading 15%, grade F, #345 of 424 statewide, top 82%, 1,877 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Rockdale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockdale County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.